Arizona’s 5th congressional district, covering East Valley suburbs in Maricopa and Pinal counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. The seat opened when incumbent Andy Biggs sought the governorship, leading to a July 2026 Republican primary won by former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who secured the nomination with Trump endorsement and roughly 59 percent of the vote. Democrat Elizabeth Lee emerged from her primary to face him in the November 3 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus that prices Republican victory near 90 percent while assigning the Democratic nominee single-digit implied probability based on the district’s voting history and structural advantages for the GOP nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-05 House Election Winner
AZ-05 House Election Winner
$34,455 Vol.
$34,455 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
9%
$34,455 Vol.
$34,455 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,062 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$15,393 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona’s 5th congressional district, covering East Valley suburbs in Maricopa and Pinal counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. The seat opened when incumbent Andy Biggs sought the governorship, leading to a July 2026 Republican primary won by former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who secured the nomination with Trump endorsement and roughly 59 percent of the vote. Democrat Elizabeth Lee emerged from her primary to face him in the November 3 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus that prices Republican victory near 90 percent while assigning the Democratic nominee single-digit implied probability based on the district’s voting history and structural advantages for the GOP nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$34,455End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona’s 5th congressional district, covering East Valley suburbs in Maricopa and Pinal counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. The seat opened when incumbent Andy Biggs sought the governorship, leading to a July 2026 Republican primary won by former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who secured the nomination with Trump endorsement and roughly 59 percent of the vote. Democrat Elizabeth Lee emerged from her primary to face him in the November 3 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus that prices Republican victory near 90 percent while assigning the Democratic nominee single-digit implied probability based on the district’s voting history and structural advantages for the GOP nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,455End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona’s 5th congressional district, covering East Valley suburbs in Maricopa and Pinal counties, carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10 and has delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. The seat opened when incumbent Andy Biggs sought the governorship, leading to a July 2026 Republican primary won by former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who secured the nomination with Trump endorsement and roughly 59 percent of the vote. Democrat Elizabeth Lee emerged from her primary to face him in the November 3 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader consensus that prices Republican victory near 90 percent while assigning the Democratic nominee single-digit implied probability based on the district’s voting history and structural advantages for the GOP nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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