Strong scientific consensus from ERA5 reanalysis, ECMWF ensembles, and Copernicus data positions August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly above 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900, driven by decades of greenhouse-gas accumulation plus a rapidly intensifying El Niño that is amplifying ocean heat content already at record levels. Current month-to-date observations blended with model runs center near 1.63°C (range roughly 1.56–1.70°C), placing the >1.29°C outcome at overwhelming market-implied probability. Realistic challenges remain limited to late-month cooling surprises in remaining ensemble members or post-processing revisions, though neither is expected to drop the anomaly below the dominant threshold given persistent atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,122 Vol.
$14,122 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.1%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,122 Vol.
$14,122 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,083 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,759 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,283 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong scientific consensus from ERA5 reanalysis, ECMWF ensembles, and Copernicus data positions August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly above 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900, driven by decades of greenhouse-gas accumulation plus a rapidly intensifying El Niño that is amplifying ocean heat content already at record levels. Current month-to-date observations blended with model runs center near 1.63°C (range roughly 1.56–1.70°C), placing the >1.29°C outcome at overwhelming market-implied probability. Realistic challenges remain limited to late-month cooling surprises in remaining ensemble members or post-processing revisions, though neither is expected to drop the anomaly below the dominant threshold given persistent atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,122End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong scientific consensus from ERA5 reanalysis, ECMWF ensembles, and Copernicus data positions August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly above 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900, driven by decades of greenhouse-gas accumulation plus a rapidly intensifying El Niño that is amplifying ocean heat content already at record levels. Current month-to-date observations blended with model runs center near 1.63°C (range roughly 1.56–1.70°C), placing the >1.29°C outcome at overwhelming market-implied probability. Realistic challenges remain limited to late-month cooling surprises in remaining ensemble members or post-processing revisions, though neither is expected to drop the anomaly below the dominant threshold given persistent atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,122End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong scientific consensus from ERA5 reanalysis, ECMWF ensembles, and Copernicus data positions August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly above 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900, driven by decades of greenhouse-gas accumulation plus a rapidly intensifying El Niño that is amplifying ocean heat content already at record levels. Current month-to-date observations blended with model runs center near 1.63°C (range roughly 1.56–1.70°C), placing the >1.29°C outcome at overwhelming market-implied probability. Realistic challenges remain limited to late-month cooling surprises in remaining ensemble members or post-processing revisions, though neither is expected to drop the anomaly below the dominant threshold given persistent atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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