Arizona Proposition 318, referred by the Republican-led legislature as HCR 2003, will appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot and would require K-12 schools and athletic associations to designate teams, restrooms, locker rooms, and related facilities based on biological sex recorded at birth. The measure expands on a 2022 state law previously blocked by federal courts and survived a July 2026 legal challenge that sought to keep it off the ballot. A June 2026 U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding similar restrictions in other states, combined with the legislature's direct referral process and Arizona's recent pattern of voter support for sex-based eligibility rules, has shaped trader assessments of passage odds. The November vote remains the key resolution trigger.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated57% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
57% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona Proposition 318, referred by the Republican-led legislature as HCR 2003, will appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot and would require K-12 schools and athletic associations to designate teams, restrooms, locker rooms, and related facilities based on biological sex recorded at birth. The measure expands on a 2022 state law previously blocked by federal courts and survived a July 2026 legal challenge that sought to keep it off the ballot. A June 2026 U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding similar restrictions in other states, combined with the legislature's direct referral process and Arizona's recent pattern of voter support for sex-based eligibility rules, has shaped trader assessments of passage odds. The November vote remains the key resolution trigger.
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$182End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/). Arizona Proposition 318, referred by the Republican-led legislature as HCR 2003, will appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot and would require K-12 schools and athletic associations to designate teams, restrooms, locker rooms, and related facilities based on biological sex recorded at birth. The measure expands on a 2022 state law previously blocked by federal courts and survived a July 2026 legal challenge that sought to keep it off the ballot. A June 2026 U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding similar restrictions in other states, combined with the legislature's direct referral process and Arizona's recent pattern of voter support for sex-based eligibility rules, has shaped trader assessments of passage odds. The November vote remains the key resolution trigger.
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Volume
$182End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 8, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Arizona Proposition 318, referred by the Republican-led legislature as HCR 2003, will appear on the November 3, 2026 ballot and would require K-12 schools and athletic associations to designate teams, restrooms, locker rooms, and related facilities based on biological sex recorded at birth. The measure expands on a 2022 state law previously blocked by federal courts and survived a July 2026 legal challenge that sought to keep it off the ballot. A June 2026 U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding similar restrictions in other states, combined with the legislature's direct referral process and Arizona's recent pattern of voter support for sex-based eligibility rules, has shaped trader assessments of passage odds. The November vote remains the key resolution trigger.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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