Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary and faces only a write-in Republican plus minor-party candidates in the November general election. The district’s consistent partisan lean and limited GOP recruitment have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 98% Democratic price. With roughly ten weeks remaining until Election Day, no major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events have altered the race’s trajectory. A Democratic hold remains the baseline outcome unless an unforeseen development—such as a late scandal, health incident, or dramatic national realignment—materializes and sustains long enough to affect voter behavior.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-03 House Election Winner
$50,532 Vol.
$50,532 Vol.
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
$50,532 Vol.
$50,532 Vol.
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
1%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Yassamin Ansari, the Democratic incumbent in Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, advanced unopposed through the July 2026 primary and faces only a write-in Republican plus minor-party candidates in the November general election. The district’s consistent partisan lean and limited GOP recruitment have produced the current trader consensus reflected in the 98% Democratic price. With roughly ten weeks remaining until Election Day, no major polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or external events have altered the race’s trajectory. A Democratic hold remains the baseline outcome unless an unforeseen development—such as a late scandal, health incident, or dramatic national realignment—materializes and sustains long enough to affect voter behavior.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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