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icon for Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
Politics·Midterms

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

icon for Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
Politics·Midterms

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

54% chance
Polymarket
NEW
54% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Washington voters face a closely contested November 3, 2026, ballot initiative requiring verification of biological sex for participation in female-designated K-12 school sports, with traders pricing passage near even odds. A June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar restrictions in other states strengthened supporter arguments around fairness and Title IX protections, while the measure's qualification after signature gathering and legislative inaction provided momentum. Campaign finance shows a clear edge for proponents, though opponents highlight concerns over implementation details like medical exams and potential impacts on broader student access. Recent disputes over voter pamphlet language referencing pediatric guidelines have intensified messaging battles, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, final advertising efforts, and any late legal or polling shifts before election day.

Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Volume
$401
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Washington voters face a closely contested November 3, 2026, ballot initiative requiring verification of biological sex for participation in female-designated K-12 school sports, with traders pricing passage near even odds. A June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar restrictions in other states strengthened supporter arguments around fairness and Title IX protections, while the measure's qualification after signature gathering and legislative inaction provided momentum. Campaign finance shows a clear edge for proponents, though opponents highlight concerns over implementation details like medical exams and potential impacts on broader student access. Recent disputes over voter pamphlet language referencing pediatric guidelines have intensified messaging battles, leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout patterns, final advertising efforts, and any late legal or polling shifts before election day.

Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Volume
$401
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 54% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 54¢, the market collectively assigns a 54% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

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The current probability for "Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?" is 54% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 54% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

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