Texas's 38th congressional district, a suburban Houston seat with a Republican partisan voting index around R+10, favors the Republican nominee Jon Bonck in the November 2026 general election. The district became open after incumbent Wesley Hunt retired to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, yet primary results showed limited Democratic strength. Bonck secured the GOP nomination in a May runoff, while Melissa McDonough won the Democratic primary earlier in March. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the area's voting history and absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would elevate Democratic prospects. Trader consensus reflects these structural and candidate factors ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-38 House Election Winner
TX-38 House Election Winner
$24,301 Vol.
$24,301 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
89%
Democratic Party
12%
$24,301 Vol.
$24,301 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$16,430 Vol.
89%
Democratic Party
$7,871 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, a suburban Houston seat with a Republican partisan voting index around R+10, favors the Republican nominee Jon Bonck in the November 2026 general election. The district became open after incumbent Wesley Hunt retired to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, yet primary results showed limited Democratic strength. Bonck secured the GOP nomination in a May runoff, while Melissa McDonough won the Democratic primary earlier in March. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the area's voting history and absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would elevate Democratic prospects. Trader consensus reflects these structural and candidate factors ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$24,301End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, a suburban Houston seat with a Republican partisan voting index around R+10, favors the Republican nominee Jon Bonck in the November 2026 general election. The district became open after incumbent Wesley Hunt retired to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, yet primary results showed limited Democratic strength. Bonck secured the GOP nomination in a May runoff, while Melissa McDonough won the Democratic primary earlier in March. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the area's voting history and absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would elevate Democratic prospects. Trader consensus reflects these structural and candidate factors ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,301End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 38th congressional district, a suburban Houston seat with a Republican partisan voting index around R+10, favors the Republican nominee Jon Bonck in the November 2026 general election. The district became open after incumbent Wesley Hunt retired to pursue a U.S. Senate bid, yet primary results showed limited Democratic strength. Bonck secured the GOP nomination in a May runoff, while Melissa McDonough won the Democratic primary earlier in March. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, consistent with the area's voting history and absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would elevate Democratic prospects. Trader consensus reflects these structural and candidate factors ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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