California's 38th congressional district carries a Democratic partisan lean of roughly D+8 following recent redistricting, which opened the seat and created a voter registration edge that favors Democrats in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas to the November ballot, with Solis securing nearly 48 percent of the vote amid a split Democratic field. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato, and others rate the contest solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical results in comparable California suburban districts. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for Democrats reflects this structural profile and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a competitive shift. A Republican win would require unusually high GOP turnout or an unforeseen development affecting the Democratic nominee before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-38 House Election Winner
CA-38 House Election Winner
$61,372 Vol.
$61,372 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$61,372 Vol.
$61,372 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$30,418 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$30,954 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district carries a Democratic partisan lean of roughly D+8 following recent redistricting, which opened the seat and created a voter registration edge that favors Democrats in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas to the November ballot, with Solis securing nearly 48 percent of the vote amid a split Democratic field. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato, and others rate the contest solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical results in comparable California suburban districts. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for Democrats reflects this structural profile and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a competitive shift. A Republican win would require unusually high GOP turnout or an unforeseen development affecting the Democratic nominee before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$61,372End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district carries a Democratic partisan lean of roughly D+8 following recent redistricting, which opened the seat and created a voter registration edge that favors Democrats in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas to the November ballot, with Solis securing nearly 48 percent of the vote amid a split Democratic field. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato, and others rate the contest solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical results in comparable California suburban districts. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for Democrats reflects this structural profile and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a competitive shift. A Republican win would require unusually high GOP turnout or an unforeseen development affecting the Democratic nominee before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$61,372End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 38th congressional district carries a Democratic partisan lean of roughly D+8 following recent redistricting, which opened the seat and created a voter registration edge that favors Democrats in general elections. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas to the November ballot, with Solis securing nearly 48 percent of the vote amid a split Democratic field. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato, and others rate the contest solid or safe Democratic, consistent with historical results in comparable California suburban districts. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for Democrats reflects this structural profile and the absence of recent polling or events indicating a competitive shift. A Republican win would require unusually high GOP turnout or an unforeseen development affecting the Democratic nominee before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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