Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with incumbent Paul Gosar facing Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November 3, 2026 general election after both advanced unopposed through July 21 primaries. The district's rural and suburban makeup has delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including strong support for Gosar and Republican presidential candidates. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising relative to the incumbent's established base. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive primary challenges or major late-cycle developments. Shifts could occur from an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting Gosar, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such outcomes remain low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
$26,112 Vol.
$26,112 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
4%
$26,112 Vol.
$26,112 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$10,243 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$15,869 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with incumbent Paul Gosar facing Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November 3, 2026 general election after both advanced unopposed through July 21 primaries. The district's rural and suburban makeup has delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including strong support for Gosar and Republican presidential candidates. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising relative to the incumbent's established base. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive primary challenges or major late-cycle developments. Shifts could occur from an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting Gosar, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such outcomes remain low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,112End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with incumbent Paul Gosar facing Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November 3, 2026 general election after both advanced unopposed through July 21 primaries. The district's rural and suburban makeup has delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including strong support for Gosar and Republican presidential candidates. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising relative to the incumbent's established base. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive primary challenges or major late-cycle developments. Shifts could occur from an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting Gosar, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such outcomes remain low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,112End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with incumbent Paul Gosar facing Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November 3, 2026 general election after both advanced unopposed through July 21 primaries. The district's rural and suburban makeup has delivered consistent double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including strong support for Gosar and Republican presidential candidates. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and fundraising relative to the incumbent's established base. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive primary challenges or major late-cycle developments. Shifts could occur from an unforeseen scandal, health event affecting Gosar, or an unusually strong national Democratic wave, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate such outcomes remain low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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