Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election to succeed her late father in the seat, enters the November 2026 general election as the clear frontrunner in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s D+13 Partisan Voter Index, its southwestern border geography spanning multiple counties with substantial Latino populations, and Grijalva’s unopposed primary victory. Her Republican opponent, Daniel Butierez Sr., also advanced unopposed but lacks comparable name recognition or fundraising momentum. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and recent primary results. A late scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-07 House Election Winner
AZ-07 House Election Winner
$32,775 Vol.
$32,775 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$32,775 Vol.
$32,775 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,795 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$26,980 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election to succeed her late father in the seat, enters the November 2026 general election as the clear frontrunner in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s D+13 Partisan Voter Index, its southwestern border geography spanning multiple counties with substantial Latino populations, and Grijalva’s unopposed primary victory. Her Republican opponent, Daniel Butierez Sr., also advanced unopposed but lacks comparable name recognition or fundraising momentum. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and recent primary results. A late scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$32,775End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election to succeed her late father in the seat, enters the November 2026 general election as the clear frontrunner in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s D+13 Partisan Voter Index, its southwestern border geography spanning multiple counties with substantial Latino populations, and Grijalva’s unopposed primary victory. Her Republican opponent, Daniel Butierez Sr., also advanced unopposed but lacks comparable name recognition or fundraising momentum. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and recent primary results. A late scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,775End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election to succeed her late father in the seat, enters the November 2026 general election as the clear frontrunner in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district’s D+13 Partisan Voter Index, its southwestern border geography spanning multiple counties with substantial Latino populations, and Grijalva’s unopposed primary victory. Her Republican opponent, Daniel Butierez Sr., also advanced unopposed but lacks comparable name recognition or fundraising momentum. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and recent primary results. A late scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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