No detected near-Earth objects pose an impact risk for the remainder of 2026 according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry and Scout systems, which continuously track orbits and assess hazards using updated observations. Small 5–10 meter objects capable of producing 5 kt airbursts occur on average every 4–5 years based on historical flux data and bolide records, placing the remaining-year probability in the low-to-moderate range amid ongoing surveys. With no model runs or close-approach updates signaling elevated odds, trader consensus favors “No” at 71% as the baseline rarity and absence of confirmed threats outweigh short-term statistical expectations before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
29% chance
$312,478 Vol.
$312,478 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
29% chance
$312,478 Vol.
$312,478 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No detected near-Earth objects pose an impact risk for the remainder of 2026 according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry and Scout systems, which continuously track orbits and assess hazards using updated observations. Small 5–10 meter objects capable of producing 5 kt airbursts occur on average every 4–5 years based on historical flux data and bolide records, placing the remaining-year probability in the low-to-moderate range amid ongoing surveys. With no model runs or close-approach updates signaling elevated odds, trader consensus favors “No” at 71% as the baseline rarity and absence of confirmed threats outweigh short-term statistical expectations before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$312,478End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No detected near-Earth objects pose an impact risk for the remainder of 2026 according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry and Scout systems, which continuously track orbits and assess hazards using updated observations. Small 5–10 meter objects capable of producing 5 kt airbursts occur on average every 4–5 years based on historical flux data and bolide records, placing the remaining-year probability in the low-to-moderate range amid ongoing surveys. With no model runs or close-approach updates signaling elevated odds, trader consensus favors “No” at 71% as the baseline rarity and absence of confirmed threats outweigh short-term statistical expectations before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$312,478End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No detected near-Earth objects pose an impact risk for the remainder of 2026 according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry and Scout systems, which continuously track orbits and assess hazards using updated observations. Small 5–10 meter objects capable of producing 5 kt airbursts occur on average every 4–5 years based on historical flux data and bolide records, placing the remaining-year probability in the low-to-moderate range amid ongoing surveys. With no model runs or close-approach updates signaling elevated odds, trader consensus favors “No” at 71% as the baseline rarity and absence of confirmed threats outweigh short-term statistical expectations before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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