Wisconsin Statute 6.03(2) has long disqualified voters who bet on an election outcome, a provision the Elections Commission reiterated in 2026 warnings and a July memo citing prediction-market activity on platforms like Polymarket. Officials acknowledge they lack practical means to detect or enforce bets placed anonymously online, limiting action to rare administrative challenges or referrals that have not produced documented disenfranchisements. Legal questions persist over whether the statute aligns with constitutional limits on voter disqualification, further reducing the likelihood of successful application before election day. Traders assign a 95.8% probability to no disenfranchisement occurring, reflecting these enforcement and procedural barriers. A shift could still arise from platform data subpoenas, public self-identification of bettors, successful voter challenges in specific races, or court rulings clarifying enforcement authority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
4% chance
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Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wisconsin Statute 6.03(2) has long disqualified voters who bet on an election outcome, a provision the Elections Commission reiterated in 2026 warnings and a July memo citing prediction-market activity on platforms like Polymarket. Officials acknowledge they lack practical means to detect or enforce bets placed anonymously online, limiting action to rare administrative challenges or referrals that have not produced documented disenfranchisements. Legal questions persist over whether the statute aligns with constitutional limits on voter disqualification, further reducing the likelihood of successful application before election day. Traders assign a 95.8% probability to no disenfranchisement occurring, reflecting these enforcement and procedural barriers. A shift could still arise from platform data subpoenas, public self-identification of bettors, successful voter challenges in specific races, or court rulings clarifying enforcement authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volume
$2,020End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wisconsin Statute 6.03(2) has long disqualified voters who bet on an election outcome, a provision the Elections Commission reiterated in 2026 warnings and a July memo citing prediction-market activity on platforms like Polymarket. Officials acknowledge they lack practical means to detect or enforce bets placed anonymously online, limiting action to rare administrative challenges or referrals that have not produced documented disenfranchisements. Legal questions persist over whether the statute aligns with constitutional limits on voter disqualification, further reducing the likelihood of successful application before election day. Traders assign a 95.8% probability to no disenfranchisement occurring, reflecting these enforcement and procedural barriers. A shift could still arise from platform data subpoenas, public self-identification of bettors, successful voter challenges in specific races, or court rulings clarifying enforcement authority.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.
Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.
Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,020End Date
Nov 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wisconsin Statute 6.03(2) has long disqualified voters who bet on an election outcome, a provision the Elections Commission reiterated in 2026 warnings and a July memo citing prediction-market activity on platforms like Polymarket. Officials acknowledge they lack practical means to detect or enforce bets placed anonymously online, limiting action to rare administrative challenges or referrals that have not produced documented disenfranchisements. Legal questions persist over whether the statute aligns with constitutional limits on voter disqualification, further reducing the likelihood of successful application before election day. Traders assign a 95.8% probability to no disenfranchisement occurring, reflecting these enforcement and procedural barriers. A shift could still arise from platform data subpoenas, public self-identification of bettors, successful voter challenges in specific races, or court rulings clarifying enforcement authority.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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