Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 after a September 2025 offensive and retain control of the city and surrounding settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with the front line now contested primarily in nearby villages. In the Huliaipole sector through mid-to-late August 2026, Russian units have sustained pressure with daily assaults and incremental attempts to advance toward areas such as Dobropillia, Zaliznychne, and Charivne, while Ukrainian forces report strikes destroying artillery, air defense systems, and infantry equipment. Ukrainian commanders have noted plans to expand the combat and kill zone this fall due to seasonal reconnaissance improvements, alongside limited counter-infiltration operations north of the city aimed at disrupting Russian logistics toward Orikhiv. Persistent Ukrainian manpower shortages and the absence of large-scale reinforcements or equipment shifts continue to constrain prospects for urban re-entry, keeping the sector focused on defensive stabilization rather than reversal of Russian gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?
$32,400 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
14%
December 31
14%
$32,400 Vol.
October 31
$21,873 Vol.
14%
December 31
$10,527 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 after a September 2025 offensive and retain control of the city and surrounding settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with the front line now contested primarily in nearby villages. In the Huliaipole sector through mid-to-late August 2026, Russian units have sustained pressure with daily assaults and incremental attempts to advance toward areas such as Dobropillia, Zaliznychne, and Charivne, while Ukrainian forces report strikes destroying artillery, air defense systems, and infantry equipment. Ukrainian commanders have noted plans to expand the combat and kill zone this fall due to seasonal reconnaissance improvements, alongside limited counter-infiltration operations north of the city aimed at disrupting Russian logistics toward Orikhiv. Persistent Ukrainian manpower shortages and the absence of large-scale reinforcements or equipment shifts continue to constrain prospects for urban re-entry, keeping the sector focused on defensive stabilization rather than reversal of Russian gains.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$32,400End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 after a September 2025 offensive and retain control of the city and surrounding settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with the front line now contested primarily in nearby villages. In the Huliaipole sector through mid-to-late August 2026, Russian units have sustained pressure with daily assaults and incremental attempts to advance toward areas such as Dobropillia, Zaliznychne, and Charivne, while Ukrainian forces report strikes destroying artillery, air defense systems, and infantry equipment. Ukrainian commanders have noted plans to expand the combat and kill zone this fall due to seasonal reconnaissance improvements, alongside limited counter-infiltration operations north of the city aimed at disrupting Russian logistics toward Orikhiv. Persistent Ukrainian manpower shortages and the absence of large-scale reinforcements or equipment shifts continue to constrain prospects for urban re-entry, keeping the sector focused on defensive stabilization rather than reversal of Russian gains.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$32,400End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 after a September 2025 offensive and retain control of the city and surrounding settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with the front line now contested primarily in nearby villages. In the Huliaipole sector through mid-to-late August 2026, Russian units have sustained pressure with daily assaults and incremental attempts to advance toward areas such as Dobropillia, Zaliznychne, and Charivne, while Ukrainian forces report strikes destroying artillery, air defense systems, and infantry equipment. Ukrainian commanders have noted plans to expand the combat and kill zone this fall due to seasonal reconnaissance improvements, alongside limited counter-infiltration operations north of the city aimed at disrupting Russian logistics toward Orikhiv. Persistent Ukrainian manpower shortages and the absence of large-scale reinforcements or equipment shifts continue to constrain prospects for urban re-entry, keeping the sector focused on defensive stabilization rather than reversal of Russian gains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions