The constitutional barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain the 96.9% trader consensus against repeal in 2026. Any change requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-quarters of the states, a threshold unmet for presidential term-limit adjustments despite occasional proposals such as H.J.Res.29. Recent statements from President Trump acknowledging the strength of existing limits, combined with limited congressional follow-through on related resolutions introduced in 2025, have reinforced expectations that no amendment will advance to completion this year. Realistic shifts remain possible only through unforeseen bipartisan momentum, a national crisis prompting extended-leadership arguments, or procedural maneuvers tested in court, though each faces steep political and institutional resistance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$13,082 Vol.
$13,082 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$13,082 Vol.
$13,082 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain the 96.9% trader consensus against repeal in 2026. Any change requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-quarters of the states, a threshold unmet for presidential term-limit adjustments despite occasional proposals such as H.J.Res.29. Recent statements from President Trump acknowledging the strength of existing limits, combined with limited congressional follow-through on related resolutions introduced in 2025, have reinforced expectations that no amendment will advance to completion this year. Realistic shifts remain possible only through unforeseen bipartisan momentum, a national crisis prompting extended-leadership arguments, or procedural maneuvers tested in court, though each faces steep political and institutional resistance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$13,082End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The constitutional barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain the 96.9% trader consensus against repeal in 2026. Any change requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-quarters of the states, a threshold unmet for presidential term-limit adjustments despite occasional proposals such as H.J.Res.29. Recent statements from President Trump acknowledging the strength of existing limits, combined with limited congressional follow-through on related resolutions introduced in 2025, have reinforced expectations that no amendment will advance to completion this year. Realistic shifts remain possible only through unforeseen bipartisan momentum, a national crisis prompting extended-leadership arguments, or procedural maneuvers tested in court, though each faces steep political and institutional resistance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volume
$13,082End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The constitutional barriers to repealing the 22nd Amendment explain the 96.9% trader consensus against repeal in 2026. Any change requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification from three-quarters of the states, a threshold unmet for presidential term-limit adjustments despite occasional proposals such as H.J.Res.29. Recent statements from President Trump acknowledging the strength of existing limits, combined with limited congressional follow-through on related resolutions introduced in 2025, have reinforced expectations that no amendment will advance to completion this year. Realistic shifts remain possible only through unforeseen bipartisan momentum, a national crisis prompting extended-leadership arguments, or procedural maneuvers tested in court, though each faces steep political and institutional resistance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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