Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, targeted Iranian leadership, missile sites, and nuclear infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, followed by Iranian retaliations and a subsequent ceasefire that shifted focus to economic sanctions, Strait of Hormuz restrictions, and diplomatic negotiations. As of August 2026, the Trump administration has emphasized “crushing” financial measures and secondary sanctions rather than ground operations, amid warnings of high costs, regional escalation risks, and limited public support for further escalation. With only four months remaining before 2027, traders assign an 83.5% probability to “No” based on the absence of invasion plans, ongoing reliance on air and economic pressure, and historical patterns favoring limited strikes over full-scale ground commitments in similar conflicts.