Iran's Islamic Penal Code, enforced under Supreme Leader authority and subject to Guardian Council vetting, criminalizes same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, while defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman under Sharia principles. No legislative proposals, parliamentary votes, or reform initiatives on same-sex marriage have surfaced in recent years amid consistent reports of enforcement, activist arrests, and official statements reinforcing traditional norms. The conservative composition of the Majlis and constitutional alignment with Islamic jurisprudence create structural barriers incompatible with legalization. Trader consensus at 98% "No" reflects these entrenched legal, religious, and institutional factors. Only an improbable regime transformation or constitutional overhaul before December 31, 2026, could plausibly shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$74,465 Vol.
$74,465 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$74,465 Vol.
$74,465 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code, enforced under Supreme Leader authority and subject to Guardian Council vetting, criminalizes same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, while defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman under Sharia principles. No legislative proposals, parliamentary votes, or reform initiatives on same-sex marriage have surfaced in recent years amid consistent reports of enforcement, activist arrests, and official statements reinforcing traditional norms. The conservative composition of the Majlis and constitutional alignment with Islamic jurisprudence create structural barriers incompatible with legalization. Trader consensus at 98% "No" reflects these entrenched legal, religious, and institutional factors. Only an improbable regime transformation or constitutional overhaul before December 31, 2026, could plausibly shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
Volume
$74,465End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code, enforced under Supreme Leader authority and subject to Guardian Council vetting, criminalizes same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, while defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman under Sharia principles. No legislative proposals, parliamentary votes, or reform initiatives on same-sex marriage have surfaced in recent years amid consistent reports of enforcement, activist arrests, and official statements reinforcing traditional norms. The conservative composition of the Majlis and constitutional alignment with Islamic jurisprudence create structural barriers incompatible with legalization. Trader consensus at 98% "No" reflects these entrenched legal, religious, and institutional factors. Only an improbable regime transformation or constitutional overhaul before December 31, 2026, could plausibly shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$74,465End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Penal Code, enforced under Supreme Leader authority and subject to Guardian Council vetting, criminalizes same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, while defining marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman under Sharia principles. No legislative proposals, parliamentary votes, or reform initiatives on same-sex marriage have surfaced in recent years amid consistent reports of enforcement, activist arrests, and official statements reinforcing traditional norms. The conservative composition of the Majlis and constitutional alignment with Islamic jurisprudence create structural barriers incompatible with legalization. Trader consensus at 98% "No" reflects these entrenched legal, religious, and institutional factors. Only an improbable regime transformation or constitutional overhaul before December 31, 2026, could plausibly shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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