Traders assign a 99.2% implied probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations. Beijing continues gray-zone maritime pressure through coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and routine naval transits, while conducting joint exercises, yet these fall short of the sustained logistics, troop movements, and command integration required for an invasion across the strait. Taipei has responded with expanded defense budgets exceeding T$1 trillion, realistic Han Kuang war games simulating rapid response and supply disruption, and civil-defense drills, underscoring sustained deterrence. U.S. and allied signaling further raises the anticipated costs of kinetic action. A rapid shift remains possible only through unforeseen escalation or miscalculation, though current patterns indicate continued coercion short of war.