China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing an intercontinental-range SLBM with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered submarine into the South Pacific. This marked Beijing’s first such open-water launch in nearly two years and served as a routine training demonstration of sea-based nuclear deterrence capabilities. No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches—whether ICBM, SLBM, or ballistic anti-ship variants—have been reported in the subsequent seven weeks. Beijing’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range tests, combined with the recent July event satisfying near-term signaling objectives, underpins trader expectations that no qualifying launch will occur before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
20% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
20% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing an intercontinental-range SLBM with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered submarine into the South Pacific. This marked Beijing’s first such open-water launch in nearly two years and served as a routine training demonstration of sea-based nuclear deterrence capabilities. No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches—whether ICBM, SLBM, or ballistic anti-ship variants—have been reported in the subsequent seven weeks. Beijing’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range tests, combined with the recent July event satisfying near-term signaling objectives, underpins trader expectations that no qualifying launch will occur before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$8,167End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing an intercontinental-range SLBM with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered submarine into the South Pacific. This marked Beijing’s first such open-water launch in nearly two years and served as a routine training demonstration of sea-based nuclear deterrence capabilities. No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches—whether ICBM, SLBM, or ballistic anti-ship variants—have been reported in the subsequent seven weeks. Beijing’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range tests, combined with the recent July event satisfying near-term signaling objectives, underpins trader expectations that no qualifying launch will occur before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$8,167End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China conducted a rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test on July 6, 2026, firing an intercontinental-range SLBM with a dummy warhead from a nuclear-powered submarine into the South Pacific. This marked Beijing’s first such open-water launch in nearly two years and served as a routine training demonstration of sea-based nuclear deterrence capabilities. No additional Chinese ballistic missile launches—whether ICBM, SLBM, or ballistic anti-ship variants—have been reported in the subsequent seven weeks. Beijing’s established pattern of infrequent public long-range tests, combined with the recent July event satisfying near-term signaling objectives, underpins trader expectations that no qualifying launch will occur before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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