**Trader sentiment for Apple purchasing CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) DRAM chips in 2026 leans toward “No” (61.5% implied probability) due to regulatory uncertainty, severe capacity constraints at CXMT, and limited near-term commercial viability.** Apple has begun testing CXMT’s DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks aimed at the China market and is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance, given CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H list over alleged military ties. This does not currently ban private purchases but creates reputational and political risks, with bipartisan lawmakers urging caution and potential escalation to stricter Entity List restrictions. CXMT operates at ~95% utilization and remains fully booked through 2027, prioritizing domestic Chinese buyers such as ByteDance, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Apple’s estimated China-related DRAM demand (~600 million GB annually) would require roughly 6.6% of CXMT’s year-end capacity—more than the firm can realistically spare. CXMT’s pricing offers no discount (often comparable to or above Samsung, SK hynix, or Micron), and its technology lags leading suppliers by 2–3 generations. While HP and Acer already source CXMT chips for non-U.S. products, Apple’s efforts remain in the testing and approval phase as of mid-to-late August 2026. The global memory crunch, driven by AI demand, has prompted Apple price hikes on Macs and iPads, but analysts note CXMT supply would not materially ease shortages or costs. Key upcoming catalysts include any White House response to Apple’s requests and further capacity or policy updates, though 2026 resolution appears unlikely given the timeline and barriers.