The 2026 Senate map features 35 seats contested amid a Republican 53-47 majority, with Democrats needing a net gain of four to take control. Multiple races in states with narrow partisan leans or open seats—such as Michigan, Maine, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska—stand out in nonpartisan ratings as toss-ups or leans, driven by recent retirements, primaries, and candidate matchups. Democratic performance in 2026 special elections has shown consistent overperformance relative to the 2024 baseline, while general election polling and fundraising trends continue to shape expectations for tight margins. The November 3 election remains the key resolution date, with any late shifts in the national environment or turnout among key voting blocs likely to determine final spreads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$44,221 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
85%
Iowa
68%
Nebraska
68%
Alaska
67%
Ohio (Special)
66%
Maine
67%
New Hampshire
54%
Michigan
53%
Florida (Special)
31%
Georgia
20%
New Mexico
12%
North Carolina
10%
Minnesota
5%
Montana
5%
Virginia
3%
Colorado
2%
$44,221 Vol.
Texas
$4,377 Vol.
85%
Iowa
$3,456 Vol.
68%
Nebraska
$2,730 Vol.
68%
Alaska
$1,936 Vol.
67%
Ohio (Special)
$2,894 Vol.
66%
Maine
$708 Vol.
67%
New Hampshire
$2,072 Vol.
54%
Michigan
$2,301 Vol.
53%
Florida (Special)
$1,480 Vol.
31%
Georgia
$686 Vol.
20%
New Mexico
$6,374 Vol.
12%
North Carolina
$2,559 Vol.
10%
Minnesota
$7,668 Vol.
5%
Montana
$1,885 Vol.
5%
Virginia
$1,272 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$1,823 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map features 35 seats contested amid a Republican 53-47 majority, with Democrats needing a net gain of four to take control. Multiple races in states with narrow partisan leans or open seats—such as Michigan, Maine, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska—stand out in nonpartisan ratings as toss-ups or leans, driven by recent retirements, primaries, and candidate matchups. Democratic performance in 2026 special elections has shown consistent overperformance relative to the 2024 baseline, while general election polling and fundraising trends continue to shape expectations for tight margins. The November 3 election remains the key resolution date, with any late shifts in the national environment or turnout among key voting blocs likely to determine final spreads.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$44,221End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map features 35 seats contested amid a Republican 53-47 majority, with Democrats needing a net gain of four to take control. Multiple races in states with narrow partisan leans or open seats—such as Michigan, Maine, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska—stand out in nonpartisan ratings as toss-ups or leans, driven by recent retirements, primaries, and candidate matchups. Democratic performance in 2026 special elections has shown consistent overperformance relative to the 2024 baseline, while general election polling and fundraising trends continue to shape expectations for tight margins. The November 3 election remains the key resolution date, with any late shifts in the national environment or turnout among key voting blocs likely to determine final spreads.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$44,221End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Senate map features 35 seats contested amid a Republican 53-47 majority, with Democrats needing a net gain of four to take control. Multiple races in states with narrow partisan leans or open seats—such as Michigan, Maine, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska—stand out in nonpartisan ratings as toss-ups or leans, driven by recent retirements, primaries, and candidate matchups. Democratic performance in 2026 special elections has shown consistent overperformance relative to the 2024 baseline, while general election polling and fundraising trends continue to shape expectations for tight margins. The November 3 election remains the key resolution date, with any late shifts in the national environment or turnout among key voting blocs likely to determine final spreads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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