Several 2026 Senate races, including the Ohio and Florida specials plus contests in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, currently poll within or near 5 points, reflecting tight margins driven by open seats from retirements, recent primaries and runoffs, and voter sentiment in Trump-won states. Aggregators rate these as toss-ups or leans amid Democratic efforts to net four seats for chamber control, with polling averages often showing single-digit gaps or ties in the latest surveys. Trader consensus on the market assigns the highest probabilities to these five or six finishing closest, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the out-party gains ground but faces structural hurdles in Republican-leaning territory. Scheduled fall debates, final fundraising pushes, and any late national economic or approval shifts could still narrow or widen specific margins before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$49,605 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Nebraska
80%
Texas
79%
Alaska
71%
Ohio (Special)
66%
Maine
65%
Michigan
59%
Iowa
59%
South Carolina
52%
New Hampshire
42%
Kansas
31%
Florida (Special)
31%
North Carolina
27%
Georgia
23%
New Mexico
11%
Minnesota
6%
Virginia
5%
Montana
4%
Colorado
2%
$49,605 Vol.
Nebraska
$2,756 Vol.
80%
Texas
$5,693 Vol.
79%
Alaska
$1,964 Vol.
71%
Ohio (Special)
$2,903 Vol.
66%
Maine
$740 Vol.
65%
Michigan
$2,608 Vol.
59%
Iowa
$5,013 Vol.
59%
South Carolina
$0 Vol.
52%
New Hampshire
$2,092 Vol.
42%
Kansas
$0 Vol.
31%
Florida (Special)
$1,481 Vol.
31%
North Carolina
$3,995 Vol.
27%
Georgia
$686 Vol.
23%
New Mexico
$6,395 Vol.
11%
Minnesota
$7,668 Vol.
6%
Virginia
$1,313 Vol.
5%
Montana
$1,975 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$2,323 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate races, including the Ohio and Florida specials plus contests in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, currently poll within or near 5 points, reflecting tight margins driven by open seats from retirements, recent primaries and runoffs, and voter sentiment in Trump-won states. Aggregators rate these as toss-ups or leans amid Democratic efforts to net four seats for chamber control, with polling averages often showing single-digit gaps or ties in the latest surveys. Trader consensus on the market assigns the highest probabilities to these five or six finishing closest, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the out-party gains ground but faces structural hurdles in Republican-leaning territory. Scheduled fall debates, final fundraising pushes, and any late national economic or approval shifts could still narrow or widen specific margins before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$49,605End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate races, including the Ohio and Florida specials plus contests in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, currently poll within or near 5 points, reflecting tight margins driven by open seats from retirements, recent primaries and runoffs, and voter sentiment in Trump-won states. Aggregators rate these as toss-ups or leans amid Democratic efforts to net four seats for chamber control, with polling averages often showing single-digit gaps or ties in the latest surveys. Trader consensus on the market assigns the highest probabilities to these five or six finishing closest, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the out-party gains ground but faces structural hurdles in Republican-leaning territory. Scheduled fall debates, final fundraising pushes, and any late national economic or approval shifts could still narrow or widen specific margins before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$49,605End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate races, including the Ohio and Florida specials plus contests in Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, currently poll within or near 5 points, reflecting tight margins driven by open seats from retirements, recent primaries and runoffs, and voter sentiment in Trump-won states. Aggregators rate these as toss-ups or leans amid Democratic efforts to net four seats for chamber control, with polling averages often showing single-digit gaps or ties in the latest surveys. Trader consensus on the market assigns the highest probabilities to these five or six finishing closest, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the out-party gains ground but faces structural hurdles in Republican-leaning territory. Scheduled fall debates, final fundraising pushes, and any late national economic or approval shifts could still narrow or widen specific margins before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions