Texas’s 30th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in recent presidential cycles and establishing it as one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state. The seat opened after redistricting and the departure of prior representation, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes secured a decisive primary victory in March 2026, while Republican Everett Jackson prevailed in a May runoff. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, and available forecasting models project wide margins consistent with the district’s fundamentals. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural advantages. A narrow path for Republicans would require an unusually large national swing, significant candidate-specific developments, or turnout shifts far beyond historical patterns in this urban Dallas-area district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
$47,066 Vol.
$47,066 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$47,066 Vol.
$47,066 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,579 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$41,488 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas’s 30th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in recent presidential cycles and establishing it as one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state. The seat opened after redistricting and the departure of prior representation, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes secured a decisive primary victory in March 2026, while Republican Everett Jackson prevailed in a May runoff. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, and available forecasting models project wide margins consistent with the district’s fundamentals. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural advantages. A narrow path for Republicans would require an unusually large national swing, significant candidate-specific developments, or turnout shifts far beyond historical patterns in this urban Dallas-area district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$47,066End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas’s 30th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in recent presidential cycles and establishing it as one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state. The seat opened after redistricting and the departure of prior representation, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes secured a decisive primary victory in March 2026, while Republican Everett Jackson prevailed in a May runoff. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, and available forecasting models project wide margins consistent with the district’s fundamentals. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural advantages. A narrow path for Republicans would require an unusually large national swing, significant candidate-specific developments, or turnout shifts far beyond historical patterns in this urban Dallas-area district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,066End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas’s 30th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+25, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in recent presidential cycles and establishing it as one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state. The seat opened after redistricting and the departure of prior representation, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes secured a decisive primary victory in March 2026, while Republican Everett Jackson prevailed in a May runoff. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, and available forecasting models project wide margins consistent with the district’s fundamentals. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural advantages. A narrow path for Republicans would require an unusually large national swing, significant candidate-specific developments, or turnout shifts far beyond historical patterns in this urban Dallas-area district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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