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icon for Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout
Elections·Midterms

Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout

icon for Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout
Elections·Midterms

Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout

1.6M-1.8M 31%

<1.6M 30%

2.4M-2.6M 30%

2.6M+ 30%

Polymarket
NEW

1.6M-1.8M 31%

<1.6M 30%

2.4M-2.6M 30%

2.6M+ 30%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.6M

$0 Vol.

30%

1.6M-1.8M

$0 Vol.

31%

1.8M-2M

$0 Vol.

29%

2M-2.2M

$0 Vol.

25%

2.2M-2.4M

$0 Vol.

25%

2.4M-2.6M

$0 Vol.

30%

2.6M+

$0 Vol.

30%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tennessee's 2026 Senate contest between incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty and Democrat Marquita Bradshaw remains a low-salience race rated Safe or Solid Republican by forecasters, with the open gubernatorial seat and multiple contested down-ballot races serving as the main turnout drivers in this midterm cycle. Historical patterns show open governor races and contested ballots lift participation above typical midterm levels, though still below presidential-year totals, while the non-competitive Senate matchup itself caps broader mobilization. Recent August 6 primaries reflected modest early-voting gains in Democratic-leaning counties relative to 2022, yet overall engagement stayed contained given the expected margin. With top turnout brackets clustered near 32-33 percent, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether the gubernatorial contest and local races can push total ballots above 2.4 million or keep them in the lower ranges; additional campaign spending, debate visibility, or late shifts in early-voting volume could create separation before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tennessee's 2026 Senate contest between incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty and Democrat Marquita Bradshaw remains a low-salience race rated Safe or Solid Republican by forecasters, with the open gubernatorial seat and multiple contested down-ballot races serving as the main turnout drivers in this midterm cycle. Historical patterns show open governor races and contested ballots lift participation above typical midterm levels, though still below presidential-year totals, while the non-competitive Senate matchup itself caps broader mobilization. Recent August 6 primaries reflected modest early-voting gains in Democratic-leaning counties relative to 2022, yet overall engagement stayed contained given the expected margin. With top turnout brackets clustered near 32-33 percent, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether the gubernatorial contest and local races can push total ballots above 2.4 million or keep them in the lower ranges; additional campaign spending, debate visibility, or late shifts in early-voting volume could create separation before November 3.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.6M-1.8M" at 31%, followed by "<1.6M" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout" is "1.6M-1.8M" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<1.6M" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tennessee Senate Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.