Spider-Man: Brand New Day's projected $38-41 million fourth weekend reflects its status as a cultural blockbuster with exceptional audience retention, fueled by a record $360 million domestic opening, rapid $2 billion global milestone, and strong word-of-mouth for Tom Holland and Zendaya's latest outing. The MCU tentpole has demonstrated remarkable legs through August, outpacing historical comparables in its first three frames while maintaining top theater counts. Trader consensus aligns with this range based on verified tracking data and typical drops for similar event films. An upset below $35 million or above $44 million would require abrupt shifts like unforeseen competition spikes or accelerated audience fatigue, scenarios not supported by current momentum or industry patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
38-41m 100.0%
<35m <1%
35-38m <1%
41-44m <1%
$143,044 Vol.
$143,044 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<35m
No
35-38m
No
38-41m
Yes
41-44m
No
44m+
No
38-41m 100.0%
<35m <1%
35-38m <1%
41-44m <1%
$143,044 Vol.
$143,044 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<35m
$28,556 Vol.
No
35-38m
$32,124 Vol.
No
38-41m
$51,761 Vol.
Yes
41-44m
$23,489 Vol.
No
44m+
$7,114 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's projected $38-41 million fourth weekend reflects its status as a cultural blockbuster with exceptional audience retention, fueled by a record $360 million domestic opening, rapid $2 billion global milestone, and strong word-of-mouth for Tom Holland and Zendaya's latest outing. The MCU tentpole has demonstrated remarkable legs through August, outpacing historical comparables in its first three frames while maintaining top theater counts. Trader consensus aligns with this range based on verified tracking data and typical drops for similar event films. An upset below $35 million or above $44 million would require abrupt shifts like unforeseen competition spikes or accelerated audience fatigue, scenarios not supported by current momentum or industry patterns.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$143,044End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day's projected $38-41 million fourth weekend reflects its status as a cultural blockbuster with exceptional audience retention, fueled by a record $360 million domestic opening, rapid $2 billion global milestone, and strong word-of-mouth for Tom Holland and Zendaya's latest outing. The MCU tentpole has demonstrated remarkable legs through August, outpacing historical comparables in its first three frames while maintaining top theater counts. Trader consensus aligns with this range based on verified tracking data and typical drops for similar event films. An upset below $35 million or above $44 million would require abrupt shifts like unforeseen competition spikes or accelerated audience fatigue, scenarios not supported by current momentum or industry patterns.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$143,044End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Spider-Man: Brand New Day's projected $38-41 million fourth weekend reflects its status as a cultural blockbuster with exceptional audience retention, fueled by a record $360 million domestic opening, rapid $2 billion global milestone, and strong word-of-mouth for Tom Holland and Zendaya's latest outing. The MCU tentpole has demonstrated remarkable legs through August, outpacing historical comparables in its first three frames while maintaining top theater counts. Trader consensus aligns with this range based on verified tracking data and typical drops for similar event films. An upset below $35 million or above $44 million would require abrupt shifts like unforeseen competition spikes or accelerated audience fatigue, scenarios not supported by current momentum or industry patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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