The 50% implied probability on any quarterback surpassing Peyton Manning’s 5,477-yard single-season record reflects the narrow historical margin—only a handful of 5,000-yard campaigns have occurred since 2013, with recent leaders typically finishing between 4,500 and 4,900 yards. Elite volume passers such as Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott enter 2026 operating in pass-friendly schemes with strong supporting casts, yet sustained health across 17 games, favorable matchups, and avoidance of run-heavy or conservative game scripts remain significant hurdles. League-wide defensive improvements, weather factors in outdoor venues, and the absence of an 18-game schedule keep the bar high, while any extended run of high-attempt games by multiple top quarterbacks or further offensive evolution could quickly shift the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 12, 2027
50% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 12, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 5,477 passing yards during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing yards record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NFL single-season passing yards record is 5,477, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 5,477 passing yards for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 5,477 passing yards within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 50% implied probability on any quarterback surpassing Peyton Manning’s 5,477-yard single-season record reflects the narrow historical margin—only a handful of 5,000-yard campaigns have occurred since 2013, with recent leaders typically finishing between 4,500 and 4,900 yards. Elite volume passers such as Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott enter 2026 operating in pass-friendly schemes with strong supporting casts, yet sustained health across 17 games, favorable matchups, and avoidance of run-heavy or conservative game scripts remain significant hurdles. League-wide defensive improvements, weather factors in outdoor venues, and the absence of an 18-game schedule keep the bar high, while any extended run of high-attempt games by multiple top quarterbacks or further offensive evolution could quickly shift the balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 5,477 passing yards during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing yards record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NFL single-season passing yards record is 5,477, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 5,477 passing yards for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 5,477 passing yards within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The NFL single-season passing yards record is 5,477, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 5,477 passing yards for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 5,477 passing yards within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 4:22 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 4:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 5,477 passing yards during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing yards record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NFL single-season passing yards record is 5,477, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 5,477 passing yards for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 5,477 passing yards within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 50% implied probability on any quarterback surpassing Peyton Manning’s 5,477-yard single-season record reflects the narrow historical margin—only a handful of 5,000-yard campaigns have occurred since 2013, with recent leaders typically finishing between 4,500 and 4,900 yards. Elite volume passers such as Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott enter 2026 operating in pass-friendly schemes with strong supporting casts, yet sustained health across 17 games, favorable matchups, and avoidance of run-heavy or conservative game scripts remain significant hurdles. League-wide defensive improvements, weather factors in outdoor venues, and the absence of an 18-game schedule keep the bar high, while any extended run of high-attempt games by multiple top quarterbacks or further offensive evolution could quickly shift the balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 5,477 passing yards during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing yards record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NFL single-season passing yards record is 5,477, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 5,477 passing yards for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 5,477 passing yards within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The NFL single-season passing yards record is 5,477, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 5,477 passing yards for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 5,477 passing yards within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 4:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 50% implied probability on any quarterback surpassing Peyton Manning’s 5,477-yard single-season record reflects the narrow historical margin—only a handful of 5,000-yard campaigns have occurred since 2013, with recent leaders typically finishing between 4,500 and 4,900 yards. Elite volume passers such as Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott enter 2026 operating in pass-friendly schemes with strong supporting casts, yet sustained health across 17 games, favorable matchups, and avoidance of run-heavy or conservative game scripts remain significant hurdles. League-wide defensive improvements, weather factors in outdoor venues, and the absence of an 18-game schedule keep the bar high, while any extended run of high-attempt games by multiple top quarterbacks or further offensive evolution could quickly shift the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions