Trader consensus heavily favors sub-425 mm total rainfall for Hong Kong in August 2026 (78.5% implied probability) given the Hong Kong Observatory's recorded 212.8 mm through mid-month against the 453 mm climatological normal. Persistent high pressure and limited monsoon activity suppressed convective development through the first three weeks, yielding mostly trace or light amounts despite occasional thunderstorms from a broad South China Sea trough. Short-range forecasts through month-end indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms but no organized tropical cyclone or sustained heavy rain episodes capable of closing the gap to normal. With only seven days remaining and model consensus showing modest additional accumulation, market-implied odds reflect the low likelihood of surpassing the 425 mm threshold or higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm 79%
475-500mm 13.7%
500-525mm 11.3%
450-475mm 5.7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
82%
425-450mm
12%
450-475mm
6%
475-500mm
14%
500-525mm
11%
525-550mm
7%
550-600mm
4%
600-650mm
5%
650-700mm
5%
700mm+
5%
<425mm 79%
475-500mm 13.7%
500-525mm 11.3%
450-475mm 5.7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$4,418 Vol.
82%
425-450mm
$370 Vol.
12%
450-475mm
$714 Vol.
6%
475-500mm
$404 Vol.
14%
500-525mm
$268 Vol.
11%
525-550mm
$318 Vol.
7%
550-600mm
$283 Vol.
4%
600-650mm
$459 Vol.
5%
650-700mm
$465 Vol.
5%
700mm+
$2,149 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors sub-425 mm total rainfall for Hong Kong in August 2026 (78.5% implied probability) given the Hong Kong Observatory's recorded 212.8 mm through mid-month against the 453 mm climatological normal. Persistent high pressure and limited monsoon activity suppressed convective development through the first three weeks, yielding mostly trace or light amounts despite occasional thunderstorms from a broad South China Sea trough. Short-range forecasts through month-end indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms but no organized tropical cyclone or sustained heavy rain episodes capable of closing the gap to normal. With only seven days remaining and model consensus showing modest additional accumulation, market-implied odds reflect the low likelihood of surpassing the 425 mm threshold or higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$9,847End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors sub-425 mm total rainfall for Hong Kong in August 2026 (78.5% implied probability) given the Hong Kong Observatory's recorded 212.8 mm through mid-month against the 453 mm climatological normal. Persistent high pressure and limited monsoon activity suppressed convective development through the first three weeks, yielding mostly trace or light amounts despite occasional thunderstorms from a broad South China Sea trough. Short-range forecasts through month-end indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms but no organized tropical cyclone or sustained heavy rain episodes capable of closing the gap to normal. With only seven days remaining and model consensus showing modest additional accumulation, market-implied odds reflect the low likelihood of surpassing the 425 mm threshold or higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,847End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors sub-425 mm total rainfall for Hong Kong in August 2026 (78.5% implied probability) given the Hong Kong Observatory's recorded 212.8 mm through mid-month against the 453 mm climatological normal. Persistent high pressure and limited monsoon activity suppressed convective development through the first three weeks, yielding mostly trace or light amounts despite occasional thunderstorms from a broad South China Sea trough. Short-range forecasts through month-end indicate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms but no organized tropical cyclone or sustained heavy rain episodes capable of closing the gap to normal. With only seven days remaining and model consensus showing modest additional accumulation, market-implied odds reflect the low likelihood of surpassing the 425 mm threshold or higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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