Oklahoma's 1st congressional district, centered on the Tulsa area with an R+11 partisan voting index, features an open seat after incumbent Republican Kevin Hern's decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination following a crowded primary and runoff process, facing Democrat John Croisant in the November 3 general election. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure. A closely contested primary runoff concluded just before the current date, solidifying the GOP candidate without altering the broader structural advantages. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-campaign developments such as candidate controversies, unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, or national political shifts that boost opposition performance in this reliably red district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-01 House Election Winner
OK-01 House Election Winner
$24,814 Vol.
$24,814 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$24,814 Vol.
$24,814 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$12,961 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$11,854 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 1st congressional district, centered on the Tulsa area with an R+11 partisan voting index, features an open seat after incumbent Republican Kevin Hern's decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination following a crowded primary and runoff process, facing Democrat John Croisant in the November 3 general election. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure. A closely contested primary runoff concluded just before the current date, solidifying the GOP candidate without altering the broader structural advantages. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-campaign developments such as candidate controversies, unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, or national political shifts that boost opposition performance in this reliably red district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$24,814End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma's 1st congressional district, centered on the Tulsa area with an R+11 partisan voting index, features an open seat after incumbent Republican Kevin Hern's decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination following a crowded primary and runoff process, facing Democrat John Croisant in the November 3 general election. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure. A closely contested primary runoff concluded just before the current date, solidifying the GOP candidate without altering the broader structural advantages. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-campaign developments such as candidate controversies, unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, or national political shifts that boost opposition performance in this reliably red district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,814End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's 1st congressional district, centered on the Tulsa area with an R+11 partisan voting index, features an open seat after incumbent Republican Kevin Hern's decision to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. Mark Tedford secured the Republican nomination following a crowded primary and runoff process, facing Democrat John Croisant in the November 3 general election. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of victory, reflecting the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles and limited Democratic infrastructure. A closely contested primary runoff concluded just before the current date, solidifying the GOP candidate without altering the broader structural advantages. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include late-campaign developments such as candidate controversies, unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, or national political shifts that boost opposition performance in this reliably red district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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