NY-21, an open seat in New York's North Country and Adirondack region following Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election, features Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien as the general election nominees after June 23 primaries. The district's longstanding Republican tilt, reflected in prior election margins and voter registration patterns, underpins traders' consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 70%. Recent primary outcomes and limited reported polling shifts have not altered the core competitive dynamic ahead of the November 3, 2026, vote, though scattered intra-party developments have kept Democratic odds in the mid-20s rather than lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$60,565 Vol.
$60,565 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
70%
Democratic Party
30%
$60,565 Vol.
$60,565 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$30,849 Vol.
70%
Democratic Party
$29,716 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21, an open seat in New York's North Country and Adirondack region following Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election, features Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien as the general election nominees after June 23 primaries. The district's longstanding Republican tilt, reflected in prior election margins and voter registration patterns, underpins traders' consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 70%. Recent primary outcomes and limited reported polling shifts have not altered the core competitive dynamic ahead of the November 3, 2026, vote, though scattered intra-party developments have kept Democratic odds in the mid-20s rather than lower.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$60,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-21, an open seat in New York's North Country and Adirondack region following Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election, features Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien as the general election nominees after June 23 primaries. The district's longstanding Republican tilt, reflected in prior election margins and voter registration patterns, underpins traders' consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 70%. Recent primary outcomes and limited reported polling shifts have not altered the core competitive dynamic ahead of the November 3, 2026, vote, though scattered intra-party developments have kept Democratic odds in the mid-20s rather than lower.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$60,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-21, an open seat in New York's North Country and Adirondack region following Elise Stefanik's decision not to seek re-election, features Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien as the general election nominees after June 23 primaries. The district's longstanding Republican tilt, reflected in prior election margins and voter registration patterns, underpins traders' consensus favoring the GOP nominee at 70%. Recent primary outcomes and limited reported polling shifts have not altered the core competitive dynamic ahead of the November 3, 2026, vote, though scattered intra-party developments have kept Democratic odds in the mid-20s rather than lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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