Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race, with traders assigning the Democratic nominee a 91% implied probability of victory against Republican Jackie Auringer. The mid-Hudson Valley district carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in its D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index, and Ryan expanded his 2024 margin to 14 points in a seat where Harris performed narrowly. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A July poll showed Ryan leading 53% to 39%. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap include a sharp national Republican surge, major scandal, or unforeseen candidate withdrawal, though structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary opposition currently anchor trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$40,385 Vol.
$40,385 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
8%
$40,385 Vol.
$40,385 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,726 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$7,659 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race, with traders assigning the Democratic nominee a 91% implied probability of victory against Republican Jackie Auringer. The mid-Hudson Valley district carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in its D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index, and Ryan expanded his 2024 margin to 14 points in a seat where Harris performed narrowly. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A July poll showed Ryan leading 53% to 39%. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap include a sharp national Republican surge, major scandal, or unforeseen candidate withdrawal, though structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary opposition currently anchor trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$40,385End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race, with traders assigning the Democratic nominee a 91% implied probability of victory against Republican Jackie Auringer. The mid-Hudson Valley district carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in its D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index, and Ryan expanded his 2024 margin to 14 points in a seat where Harris performed narrowly. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A July poll showed Ryan leading 53% to 39%. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap include a sharp national Republican surge, major scandal, or unforeseen candidate withdrawal, though structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary opposition currently anchor trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,385End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in the NY-18 House race, with traders assigning the Democratic nominee a 91% implied probability of victory against Republican Jackie Auringer. The mid-Hudson Valley district carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in its D+2 Cook Partisan Voter Index, and Ryan expanded his 2024 margin to 14 points in a seat where Harris performed narrowly. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June 2026 primaries, and nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. A July poll showed Ryan leading 53% to 39%. Late developments capable of narrowing the gap include a sharp national Republican surge, major scandal, or unforeseen candidate withdrawal, though structural advantages and the absence of competitive primary opposition currently anchor trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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