Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the NY-03 race following his decisive June primary victory and established name recognition in the suburban Long Island and Queens portions of the district. The EVEN partisan voter index and Suozzi’s prior narrow general-election win have produced trader consensus favoring Democrats at 92 percent, consistent with forecasters rating the contest Lean or Likely Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Michael LiPetri Jr. faces structural headwinds in a midterm environment that typically benefits the opposition party. Late developments that could narrow the gap include sustained national Republican momentum, unusually high suburban turnout on local fiscal or border-security concerns, or unexpected shifts in campaign spending and endorsements before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-03 House Election Winner
NY-03 House Election Winner
$24,592 Vol.
$24,592 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
$24,592 Vol.
$24,592 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,387 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$13,205 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the NY-03 race following his decisive June primary victory and established name recognition in the suburban Long Island and Queens portions of the district. The EVEN partisan voter index and Suozzi’s prior narrow general-election win have produced trader consensus favoring Democrats at 92 percent, consistent with forecasters rating the contest Lean or Likely Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Michael LiPetri Jr. faces structural headwinds in a midterm environment that typically benefits the opposition party. Late developments that could narrow the gap include sustained national Republican momentum, unusually high suburban turnout on local fiscal or border-security concerns, or unexpected shifts in campaign spending and endorsements before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$24,592End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the NY-03 race following his decisive June primary victory and established name recognition in the suburban Long Island and Queens portions of the district. The EVEN partisan voter index and Suozzi’s prior narrow general-election win have produced trader consensus favoring Democrats at 92 percent, consistent with forecasters rating the contest Lean or Likely Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Michael LiPetri Jr. faces structural headwinds in a midterm environment that typically benefits the opposition party. Late developments that could narrow the gap include sustained national Republican momentum, unusually high suburban turnout on local fiscal or border-security concerns, or unexpected shifts in campaign spending and endorsements before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,592End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the NY-03 race following his decisive June primary victory and established name recognition in the suburban Long Island and Queens portions of the district. The EVEN partisan voter index and Suozzi’s prior narrow general-election win have produced trader consensus favoring Democrats at 92 percent, consistent with forecasters rating the contest Lean or Likely Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Michael LiPetri Jr. faces structural headwinds in a midterm environment that typically benefits the opposition party. Late developments that could narrow the gap include sustained national Republican momentum, unusually high suburban turnout on local fiscal or border-security concerns, or unexpected shifts in campaign spending and endorsements before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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