**The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 8, 2026, ruling invalidating the April referendum and underlying constitutional amendment is the dominant factor behind the 96.1% trader consensus on “No.”** The 4-3 decision found that the Democratic-controlled General Assembly violated procedural requirements when advancing the mid-decade redistricting measure in a special session, rendering both the ballot question and the proposed 10-1 Democratic map legally void. The U.S. Supreme Court subsequently declined to intervene, and Governor Abigail Spanberger publicly confirmed that the 2021 court-drawn lines would govern the November 2026 midterms. Subsequent developments have reinforced this outcome. Congressional candidates filed under the existing map by the May 26 deadline, and August primaries proceeded on those boundaries. With the election less than three months away, no viable legal or legislative pathway remains to enact new districts in time. Historical precedent for successful last-minute overrides of state supreme court redistricting decisions is extremely limited, and Virginia’s constitutional amendment process requires sequential legislative votes separated by an election—constraints that cannot be met before November. Traders price residual “Yes” risk at roughly 4% to account for highly improbable tail scenarios, such as an unforeseen federal intervention or an extraordinary legislative workaround that somehow survives judicial review. In practice, the combination of settled state and federal court rulings, completed candidate filings, and the compressed calendar has produced near-certainty that the current congressional map will be used.