The MN-02 race centers on an open seat in a D+3 district where Democrats have held the position since 2018. Angie Craig's decision to run for Senate instead of reelection created the vacancy, but primary voters selected progressive former state Sen. Matt Little as the Democratic nominee over moderate alternatives. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing the district's suburban-rural mix, recent Democratic performance in House races, and the Republican nominee's profile. Trader consensus at 91.5% Democratic reflects these structural and recent primary factors. A national Republican surge, turnout shifts among suburban voters, or effective attacks on Little's policy positions could narrow the gap before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-02 House Election Winner
MN-02 House Election Winner
$22,109 Vol.
$22,109 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
$22,109 Vol.
$22,109 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,465 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$13,644 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The MN-02 race centers on an open seat in a D+3 district where Democrats have held the position since 2018. Angie Craig's decision to run for Senate instead of reelection created the vacancy, but primary voters selected progressive former state Sen. Matt Little as the Democratic nominee over moderate alternatives. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing the district's suburban-rural mix, recent Democratic performance in House races, and the Republican nominee's profile. Trader consensus at 91.5% Democratic reflects these structural and recent primary factors. A national Republican surge, turnout shifts among suburban voters, or effective attacks on Little's policy positions could narrow the gap before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$22,109End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The MN-02 race centers on an open seat in a D+3 district where Democrats have held the position since 2018. Angie Craig's decision to run for Senate instead of reelection created the vacancy, but primary voters selected progressive former state Sen. Matt Little as the Democratic nominee over moderate alternatives. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing the district's suburban-rural mix, recent Democratic performance in House races, and the Republican nominee's profile. Trader consensus at 91.5% Democratic reflects these structural and recent primary factors. A national Republican surge, turnout shifts among suburban voters, or effective attacks on Little's policy positions could narrow the gap before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,109End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The MN-02 race centers on an open seat in a D+3 district where Democrats have held the position since 2018. Angie Craig's decision to run for Senate instead of reelection created the vacancy, but primary voters selected progressive former state Sen. Matt Little as the Democratic nominee over moderate alternatives. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Democratic, citing the district's suburban-rural mix, recent Democratic performance in House races, and the Republican nominee's profile. Trader consensus at 91.5% Democratic reflects these structural and recent primary factors. A national Republican surge, turnout shifts among suburban voters, or effective attacks on Little's policy positions could narrow the gap before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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