Incumbent Debbie Dingell’s established position in Michigan’s 6th congressional district, which encompasses Ann Arbor and surrounding Democratic-leaning suburbs in Washtenaw and Wayne counties, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable general-election win on November 3. Both Dingell and Republican nominee Heather Smiley advanced unopposed through the August 4 primaries, leaving the race focused on turnout patterns and any national midterm dynamics that could affect margins. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Dingell’s 62 percent share in 2024 and the district’s partisan lean, which limits upside for Smiley while leaving room for variation in the final Democratic margin. Sparse recent polling contributes to the spread across outcome buckets, as traders weigh historical performance against the possibility of shifts from campaign spending, voter mobilization, or late-cycle events before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrat 40-45% 30%
Democrat 50%+ 29%
Democrat 45-50% 29%
Democrat 30-35% 29%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 50%+
29%
Democrat 45-50%
29%
Democrat 40-45%
30%
Democrat 35-40%
22%
Democrat 30-35%
29%
Democrat 25-30%
23%
Democrat 20-25%
28%
Democrat 10-20%
25%
Democrat 0-10%
26%
Republican Wins
19%
Democrat 40-45% 30%
Democrat 50%+ 29%
Democrat 45-50% 29%
Democrat 30-35% 29%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 50%+
$0 Vol.
29%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Vol.
29%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
30%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Vol.
22%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 Vol.
29%
Democrat 25-30%
$19 Vol.
23%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Vol.
28%
Democrat 10-20%
$0 Vol.
25%
Democrat 0-10%
$0 Vol.
26%
Republican Wins
$56 Vol.
19%
The 2026 MI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Debbie Dingell’s established position in Michigan’s 6th congressional district, which encompasses Ann Arbor and surrounding Democratic-leaning suburbs in Washtenaw and Wayne counties, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable general-election win on November 3. Both Dingell and Republican nominee Heather Smiley advanced unopposed through the August 4 primaries, leaving the race focused on turnout patterns and any national midterm dynamics that could affect margins. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Dingell’s 62 percent share in 2024 and the district’s partisan lean, which limits upside for Smiley while leaving room for variation in the final Democratic margin. Sparse recent polling contributes to the spread across outcome buckets, as traders weigh historical performance against the possibility of shifts from campaign spending, voter mobilization, or late-cycle events before Election Day.
The 2026 MI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
Volume
$75End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Debbie Dingell’s established position in Michigan’s 6th congressional district, which encompasses Ann Arbor and surrounding Democratic-leaning suburbs in Washtenaw and Wayne counties, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable general-election win on November 3. Both Dingell and Republican nominee Heather Smiley advanced unopposed through the August 4 primaries, leaving the race focused on turnout patterns and any national midterm dynamics that could affect margins. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Dingell’s 62 percent share in 2024 and the district’s partisan lean, which limits upside for Smiley while leaving room for variation in the final Democratic margin. Sparse recent polling contributes to the spread across outcome buckets, as traders weigh historical performance against the possibility of shifts from campaign spending, voter mobilization, or late-cycle events before Election Day.
The 2026 MI-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Debbie Dingell’s established position in Michigan’s 6th congressional district, which encompasses Ann Arbor and surrounding Democratic-leaning suburbs in Washtenaw and Wayne counties, anchors trader expectations for a comfortable general-election win on November 3. Both Dingell and Republican nominee Heather Smiley advanced unopposed through the August 4 primaries, leaving the race focused on turnout patterns and any national midterm dynamics that could affect margins. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Dingell’s 62 percent share in 2024 and the district’s partisan lean, which limits upside for Smiley while leaving room for variation in the final Democratic margin. Sparse recent polling contributes to the spread across outcome buckets, as traders weigh historical performance against the possibility of shifts from campaign spending, voter mobilization, or late-cycle events before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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