Incumbent Democrat Wes Moore secured renomination with nearly 88% of the primary vote in June 2026 and holds a commanding position in the November general election against Republican Dan Cox, who won a crowded GOP primary. Maryland's strong Democratic lean, reflected in recent statewide results and a July-August poll showing Moore ahead 58% to 31%, reinforces trader consensus on the outcome. No Democratic incumbent has lost reelection in the state since 1934, and forecasts rate the race Solid Democratic. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited, though shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or unexpected national political events before November 3 could still influence the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$22,080 Vol.
$22,080 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
97%
Republican
3%
$22,080 Vol.
$22,080 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$12,982 Vol.
97%
Republican
$9,098 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Wes Moore secured renomination with nearly 88% of the primary vote in June 2026 and holds a commanding position in the November general election against Republican Dan Cox, who won a crowded GOP primary. Maryland's strong Democratic lean, reflected in recent statewide results and a July-August poll showing Moore ahead 58% to 31%, reinforces trader consensus on the outcome. No Democratic incumbent has lost reelection in the state since 1934, and forecasts rate the race Solid Democratic. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited, though shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or unexpected national political events before November 3 could still influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$22,080End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Wes Moore secured renomination with nearly 88% of the primary vote in June 2026 and holds a commanding position in the November general election against Republican Dan Cox, who won a crowded GOP primary. Maryland's strong Democratic lean, reflected in recent statewide results and a July-August poll showing Moore ahead 58% to 31%, reinforces trader consensus on the outcome. No Democratic incumbent has lost reelection in the state since 1934, and forecasts rate the race Solid Democratic. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited, though shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or unexpected national political events before November 3 could still influence the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$22,080End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Wes Moore secured renomination with nearly 88% of the primary vote in June 2026 and holds a commanding position in the November general election against Republican Dan Cox, who won a crowded GOP primary. Maryland's strong Democratic lean, reflected in recent statewide results and a July-August poll showing Moore ahead 58% to 31%, reinforces trader consensus on the outcome. No Democratic incumbent has lost reelection in the state since 1934, and forecasts rate the race Solid Democratic. Late developments that could narrow the gap remain limited, though shifts in turnout among key voting blocs or unexpected national political events before November 3 could still influence the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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