Trader consensus favoring "No" at 92.3% stems primarily from USGS seismic catalogs and recurrence models showing very low annualized probabilities—around 0.2% per year for Mw ≥6.5 mainshocks in central Los Angeles—driven by long return intervals on local thrust faults such as the Puente Hills and Sierra Madre systems. Current Southern California Seismic Network monitoring reveals only background microseismicity with no foreshock swarms, elevated strain indicators, or model consensus for imminent large events through late 2026. Historical analogs confirm such quakes cluster over centuries rather than short windows. A sudden blind-thrust rupture or distant triggering remains possible but would require unprecedented rapid stress transfer not supported by present data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
8% chance
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
8% chance
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus favoring "No" at 92.3% stems primarily from USGS seismic catalogs and recurrence models showing very low annualized probabilities—around 0.2% per year for Mw ≥6.5 mainshocks in central Los Angeles—driven by long return intervals on local thrust faults such as the Puente Hills and Sierra Madre systems. Current Southern California Seismic Network monitoring reveals only background microseismicity with no foreshock swarms, elevated strain indicators, or model consensus for imminent large events through late 2026. Historical analogs confirm such quakes cluster over centuries rather than short windows. A sudden blind-thrust rupture or distant triggering remains possible but would require unprecedented rapid stress transfer not supported by present data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,533End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus favoring "No" at 92.3% stems primarily from USGS seismic catalogs and recurrence models showing very low annualized probabilities—around 0.2% per year for Mw ≥6.5 mainshocks in central Los Angeles—driven by long return intervals on local thrust faults such as the Puente Hills and Sierra Madre systems. Current Southern California Seismic Network monitoring reveals only background microseismicity with no foreshock swarms, elevated strain indicators, or model consensus for imminent large events through late 2026. Historical analogs confirm such quakes cluster over centuries rather than short windows. A sudden blind-thrust rupture or distant triggering remains possible but would require unprecedented rapid stress transfer not supported by present data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$16,533End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 92.3% stems primarily from USGS seismic catalogs and recurrence models showing very low annualized probabilities—around 0.2% per year for Mw ≥6.5 mainshocks in central Los Angeles—driven by long return intervals on local thrust faults such as the Puente Hills and Sierra Madre systems. Current Southern California Seismic Network monitoring reveals only background microseismicity with no foreshock swarms, elevated strain indicators, or model consensus for imminent large events through late 2026. Historical analogs confirm such quakes cluster over centuries rather than short windows. A sudden blind-thrust rupture or distant triggering remains possible but would require unprecedented rapid stress transfer not supported by present data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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