Anthropic leads Polymarket’s implied probabilities for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap at 59.8% because its bankers have outlined plans for a potential October listing at a $2 trillion-plus valuation with a $100 billion raise, supported by a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and 2028 projections near $190–200 billion. SpaceX’s June IPO at $1.77 trillion and $85.7 billion raised anchors its 39.0% odds, though recent post-IPO trading and lock-up dynamics have tempered expectations it will retain the crown. xAI’s 25.5% reflects its February acquisition by SpaceX, folding its operations into the listed entity rather than supporting a standalone debut. Other candidates remain at 0.9% or below amid limited 2026 filing signals or smaller scale. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected public S-1 filing and final pricing, which will determine whether the AI firm’s implied market cap exceeds SpaceX’s record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Anthropic 59.8%
SpaceX 37%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,716,016 Vol.
$5,716,016 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
60%
SpaceX
37%
OpenAI
1%
Discord
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
Anthropic 59.8%
SpaceX 37%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,716,016 Vol.
$5,716,016 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
$925,139 Vol.
60%
SpaceX
$829,394 Vol.
37%
OpenAI
$525,827 Vol.
1%
Discord
$176,734 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$213,392 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$130,177 Vol.
<1%
Kraken
$656,963 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$583,615 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$318,150 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$633,436 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$108,136 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$615,055 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic leads Polymarket’s implied probabilities for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap at 59.8% because its bankers have outlined plans for a potential October listing at a $2 trillion-plus valuation with a $100 billion raise, supported by a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and 2028 projections near $190–200 billion. SpaceX’s June IPO at $1.77 trillion and $85.7 billion raised anchors its 39.0% odds, though recent post-IPO trading and lock-up dynamics have tempered expectations it will retain the crown. xAI’s 25.5% reflects its February acquisition by SpaceX, folding its operations into the listed entity rather than supporting a standalone debut. Other candidates remain at 0.9% or below amid limited 2026 filing signals or smaller scale. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected public S-1 filing and final pricing, which will determine whether the AI firm’s implied market cap exceeds SpaceX’s record.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$5,716,016End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Anthropic leads Polymarket’s implied probabilities for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap at 59.8% because its bankers have outlined plans for a potential October listing at a $2 trillion-plus valuation with a $100 billion raise, supported by a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and 2028 projections near $190–200 billion. SpaceX’s June IPO at $1.77 trillion and $85.7 billion raised anchors its 39.0% odds, though recent post-IPO trading and lock-up dynamics have tempered expectations it will retain the crown. xAI’s 25.5% reflects its February acquisition by SpaceX, folding its operations into the listed entity rather than supporting a standalone debut. Other candidates remain at 0.9% or below amid limited 2026 filing signals or smaller scale. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected public S-1 filing and final pricing, which will determine whether the AI firm’s implied market cap exceeds SpaceX’s record.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$5,716,016End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic leads Polymarket’s implied probabilities for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap at 59.8% because its bankers have outlined plans for a potential October listing at a $2 trillion-plus valuation with a $100 billion raise, supported by a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and 2028 projections near $190–200 billion. SpaceX’s June IPO at $1.77 trillion and $85.7 billion raised anchors its 39.0% odds, though recent post-IPO trading and lock-up dynamics have tempered expectations it will retain the crown. xAI’s 25.5% reflects its February acquisition by SpaceX, folding its operations into the listed entity rather than supporting a standalone debut. Other candidates remain at 0.9% or below amid limited 2026 filing signals or smaller scale. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected public S-1 filing and final pricing, which will determine whether the AI firm’s implied market cap exceeds SpaceX’s record.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions