Recent delays in achieving an upper-stage tower catch and verified rapid reflight have driven the 59.5% market-implied probability toward “No” for full Starship reusability before 2027. SpaceX has repeatedly caught the Super Heavy booster on 2026 flights and demonstrated controlled Starship reentries with intact heat shields, including Flight 13 in July, validating thermal protection systems. However, the first ship catch attempt has slipped past late August, and Musk’s latest projections target an initial ship reflight only in late 2026 or early 2027. Achieving both a successful tower catch and a rapid turnaround cycle before year-end faces tight constraints from regulatory approvals, hardware validation, and the program’s history of timeline slips, leaving insufficient runway for traders to favor an earlier resolution.