The IL-02 district's D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles underpin the Democratic Party's 95.5% implied probability. Robin Kelly's decision not to seek re-election created an open seat, but Donna Miller secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces only token opposition from Republican Mike Noack. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the district's long absence of Republican representation. Shifts could occur only through an unforeseen development such as a late candidate withdrawal or significant scandal altering voter behavior in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-02 House Election Winner
IL-02 House Election Winner
$33,429 Vol.
$33,429 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
1%
$33,429 Vol.
$33,429 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,332 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$19,097 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IL-02 district's D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles underpin the Democratic Party's 95.5% implied probability. Robin Kelly's decision not to seek re-election created an open seat, but Donna Miller secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces only token opposition from Republican Mike Noack. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the district's long absence of Republican representation. Shifts could occur only through an unforeseen development such as a late candidate withdrawal or significant scandal altering voter behavior in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$33,429End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IL-02 district's D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles underpin the Democratic Party's 95.5% implied probability. Robin Kelly's decision not to seek re-election created an open seat, but Donna Miller secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces only token opposition from Republican Mike Noack. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the district's long absence of Republican representation. Shifts could occur only through an unforeseen development such as a late candidate withdrawal or significant scandal altering voter behavior in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,429End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The IL-02 district's D+18 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic margins exceeding 25 points in recent cycles underpin the Democratic Party's 95.5% implied probability. Robin Kelly's decision not to seek re-election created an open seat, but Donna Miller secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and faces only token opposition from Republican Mike Noack. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and similar outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the district's long absence of Republican representation. Shifts could occur only through an unforeseen development such as a late candidate withdrawal or significant scandal altering voter behavior in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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