The strong Republican lean of Iowa's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5%. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship opened the seat, yet Republican Chris McGowan advanced unopposed in the June primary while Democrat Dave Dawson won a contested primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, supported by McGowan's fundraising edge and the district's consistent GOP voting patterns in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited paths for Democratic gains before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
$32,170 Vol.
$32,170 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$32,170 Vol.
$32,170 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$20,064 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$12,106 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Iowa's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5%. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship opened the seat, yet Republican Chris McGowan advanced unopposed in the June primary while Democrat Dave Dawson won a contested primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, supported by McGowan's fundraising edge and the district's consistent GOP voting patterns in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited paths for Democratic gains before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$32,170End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Iowa's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5%. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship opened the seat, yet Republican Chris McGowan advanced unopposed in the June primary while Democrat Dave Dawson won a contested primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, supported by McGowan's fundraising edge and the district's consistent GOP voting patterns in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited paths for Democratic gains before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,170End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Iowa's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its R+15 Partisan Voter Index, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 92.5%. Incumbent Randy Feenstra's retirement to pursue the governorship opened the seat, yet Republican Chris McGowan advanced unopposed in the June primary while Democrat Dave Dawson won a contested primary. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, supported by McGowan's fundraising edge and the district's consistent GOP voting patterns in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited paths for Democratic gains before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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