**Trader sentiment strongly favors 200+ weekly transits (68.5% implied probability) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the week of August 17, 2026, reflecting resilient traffic volumes amid elevated but contained geopolitical risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show confirmed crossings holding in the 250–269 range for the weeks surrounding mid-August, including 254 transits from August 10–16 (up 6.7% week-over-week) and 269 in a subsequent snapshot (up 3.1%). Daily averages typically ranged from 27–43 vessels, supported by a mix of laden container and tanker movements plus ballast and shadow-fleet activity. Some major carriers (MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) resumed limited Suez routings, contributing to the flow even as certain vessels transited “dark” with AIS off. Key developments shaping the odds include the August 11 Houthi missile strike on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah, which killed six (marking the first commercial shipping fatalities in the corridor since February), alongside ongoing war-risk premium repricing above 1% of hull value. These incidents have prompted rerouting or caution by some operators but have not triggered a broad collapse in volumes, unlike sharper drops seen earlier in the year. Sanctioned and ballast traffic has offset declines in compliant laden flows, keeping aggregate counts elevated. The market-implied distribution (with sub-200 buckets totaling under 26%) aligns with this data-driven resilience: traders price in continuity near recent levels rather than a sharp contraction, while acknowledging that further escalation or major carrier pullbacks could still compress numbers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
200+ 69%
180-199 12%
160-179 9%
<160 4.4%
$27,067 Vol.
$27,067 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<160
4%
160-179
9%
180-199
12%
200+
69%
200+ 69%
180-199 12%
160-179 9%
<160 4.4%
$27,067 Vol.
$27,067 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<160
$7,292 Vol.
4%
160-179
$4,378 Vol.
9%
180-199
$6,348 Vol.
12%
200+
$9,050 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment strongly favors 200+ weekly transits (68.5% implied probability) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the week of August 17, 2026, reflecting resilient traffic volumes amid elevated but contained geopolitical risks.**
Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show confirmed crossings holding in the 250–269 range for the weeks surrounding mid-August, including 254 transits from August 10–16 (up 6.7% week-over-week) and 269 in a subsequent snapshot (up 3.1%). Daily averages typically ranged from 27–43 vessels, supported by a mix of laden container and tanker movements plus ballast and shadow-fleet activity. Some major carriers (MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) resumed limited Suez routings, contributing to the flow even as certain vessels transited “dark” with AIS off.
Key developments shaping the odds include the August 11 Houthi missile strike on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah, which killed six (marking the first commercial shipping fatalities in the corridor since February), alongside ongoing war-risk premium repricing above 1% of hull value. These incidents have prompted rerouting or caution by some operators but have not triggered a broad collapse in volumes, unlike sharper drops seen earlier in the year. Sanctioned and ballast traffic has offset declines in compliant laden flows, keeping aggregate counts elevated.
The market-implied distribution (with sub-200 buckets totaling under 26%) aligns with this data-driven resilience: traders price in continuity near recent levels rather than a sharp contraction, while acknowledging that further escalation or major carrier pullbacks could still compress numbers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$27,067End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment strongly favors 200+ weekly transits (68.5% implied probability) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the week of August 17, 2026, reflecting resilient traffic volumes amid elevated but contained geopolitical risks.**
Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show confirmed crossings holding in the 250–269 range for the weeks surrounding mid-August, including 254 transits from August 10–16 (up 6.7% week-over-week) and 269 in a subsequent snapshot (up 3.1%). Daily averages typically ranged from 27–43 vessels, supported by a mix of laden container and tanker movements plus ballast and shadow-fleet activity. Some major carriers (MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) resumed limited Suez routings, contributing to the flow even as certain vessels transited “dark” with AIS off.
Key developments shaping the odds include the August 11 Houthi missile strike on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah, which killed six (marking the first commercial shipping fatalities in the corridor since February), alongside ongoing war-risk premium repricing above 1% of hull value. These incidents have prompted rerouting or caution by some operators but have not triggered a broad collapse in volumes, unlike sharper drops seen earlier in the year. Sanctioned and ballast traffic has offset declines in compliant laden flows, keeping aggregate counts elevated.
The market-implied distribution (with sub-200 buckets totaling under 26%) aligns with this data-driven resilience: traders price in continuity near recent levels rather than a sharp contraction, while acknowledging that further escalation or major carrier pullbacks could still compress numbers.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$27,067End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment strongly favors 200+ weekly transits (68.5% implied probability) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the week of August 17, 2026, reflecting resilient traffic volumes amid elevated but contained geopolitical risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show confirmed crossings holding in the 250–269 range for the weeks surrounding mid-August, including 254 transits from August 10–16 (up 6.7% week-over-week) and 269 in a subsequent snapshot (up 3.1%). Daily averages typically ranged from 27–43 vessels, supported by a mix of laden container and tanker movements plus ballast and shadow-fleet activity. Some major carriers (MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) resumed limited Suez routings, contributing to the flow even as certain vessels transited “dark” with AIS off. Key developments shaping the odds include the August 11 Houthi missile strike on the Egyptian-owned Tihamah, which killed six (marking the first commercial shipping fatalities in the corridor since February), alongside ongoing war-risk premium repricing above 1% of hull value. These incidents have prompted rerouting or caution by some operators but have not triggered a broad collapse in volumes, unlike sharper drops seen earlier in the year. Sanctioned and ballast traffic has offset declines in compliant laden flows, keeping aggregate counts elevated. The market-implied distribution (with sub-200 buckets totaling under 26%) aligns with this data-driven resilience: traders price in continuity near recent levels rather than a sharp contraction, while acknowledging that further escalation or major carrier pullbacks could still compress numbers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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