No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through August 2026, supporting the market's 62% implied probability for zero events by year-end. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS reports show only lower-intensity activity, including episodic effusive fountaining at Kīlauea, frequent ash emissions from Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, and Merapi (typically VEI 1–3), and a deep submarine event at Titan Ridge whose plume height has not met official VEI 4 thresholds of roughly 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent or 10–25 km plume heights. Historical averages of 0.5–1 such eruptions per year provide context, yet the current absence of stratospheric sulfur dioxide spikes or major caldera unrest keeps consensus on zero or one event dominant. Traders weigh the remaining four-plus months against typical quiet intervals between larger explosive episodes on the VEI scale.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0 62%
1 26%
2 3.6%
3 <1%
$1,156,277 Vol.
$1,156,277 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
0
62%
1
26%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 62%
1 26%
2 3.6%
3 <1%
$1,156,277 Vol.
$1,156,277 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
0
$499,087 Vol.
62%
1
$274,034 Vol.
26%
2
$40,936 Vol.
4%
3
$31,686 Vol.
1%
4
$35,007 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,527 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through August 2026, supporting the market's 62% implied probability for zero events by year-end. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS reports show only lower-intensity activity, including episodic effusive fountaining at Kīlauea, frequent ash emissions from Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, and Merapi (typically VEI 1–3), and a deep submarine event at Titan Ridge whose plume height has not met official VEI 4 thresholds of roughly 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent or 10–25 km plume heights. Historical averages of 0.5–1 such eruptions per year provide context, yet the current absence of stratospheric sulfur dioxide spikes or major caldera unrest keeps consensus on zero or one event dominant. Traders weigh the remaining four-plus months against typical quiet intervals between larger explosive episodes on the VEI scale.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,156,277End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through August 2026, supporting the market's 62% implied probability for zero events by year-end. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS reports show only lower-intensity activity, including episodic effusive fountaining at Kīlauea, frequent ash emissions from Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, and Merapi (typically VEI 1–3), and a deep submarine event at Titan Ridge whose plume height has not met official VEI 4 thresholds of roughly 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent or 10–25 km plume heights. Historical averages of 0.5–1 such eruptions per year provide context, yet the current absence of stratospheric sulfur dioxide spikes or major caldera unrest keeps consensus on zero or one event dominant. Traders weigh the remaining four-plus months against typical quiet intervals between larger explosive episodes on the VEI scale.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,156,277End Date
Mar 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through August 2026, supporting the market's 62% implied probability for zero events by year-end. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS reports show only lower-intensity activity, including episodic effusive fountaining at Kīlauea, frequent ash emissions from Semeru, Ibu, Lewotobi, and Merapi (typically VEI 1–3), and a deep submarine event at Titan Ridge whose plume height has not met official VEI 4 thresholds of roughly 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent or 10–25 km plume heights. Historical averages of 0.5–1 such eruptions per year provide context, yet the current absence of stratospheric sulfur dioxide spikes or major caldera unrest keeps consensus on zero or one event dominant. Traders weigh the remaining four-plus months against typical quiet intervals between larger explosive episodes on the VEI scale.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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