The 2025 mid-decade redistricting in Texas, enacted at the urging of President Trump and signed into law by Governor Abbott, forms the central driver of current trader positioning. The map shifted boundaries to favor Republicans in several previously Democratic-leaning districts, particularly in South Texas, reducing the party's baseline from 13 seats while creating three to five additional Republican-leaning opportunities. This leaves only a narrow band of competitive districts, mainly TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34, where outcomes hinge on Hispanic voter turnout, candidate strength, and any national midterm swing. March 2026 primaries showed elevated Democratic participation in targeted areas, and generic ballot polling indicates a modest opposition-party advantage, sustaining tight probabilities clustered around 10–12 seats. Late shifts in turnout patterns or legal challenges to specific lines could still alter the final count before November voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12 20%
10 19%
11 16%
14+ 11%
$10,489 Vol.
$10,489 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<8
<1%
8
8%
9
10%
10
19%
11
16%
12
20%
13
10%
14+
11%
12 20%
10 19%
11 16%
14+ 11%
$10,489 Vol.
$10,489 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<8
$210 Vol.
<1%
8
$3,557 Vol.
8%
9
$868 Vol.
10%
10
$1,030 Vol.
19%
11
$579 Vol.
16%
12
$634 Vol.
20%
13
$919 Vol.
10%
14+
$2,693 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The 2025 mid-decade redistricting in Texas, enacted at the urging of President Trump and signed into law by Governor Abbott, forms the central driver of current trader positioning. The map shifted boundaries to favor Republicans in several previously Democratic-leaning districts, particularly in South Texas, reducing the party's baseline from 13 seats while creating three to five additional Republican-leaning opportunities. This leaves only a narrow band of competitive districts, mainly TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34, where outcomes hinge on Hispanic voter turnout, candidate strength, and any national midterm swing. March 2026 primaries showed elevated Democratic participation in targeted areas, and generic ballot polling indicates a modest opposition-party advantage, sustaining tight probabilities clustered around 10–12 seats. Late shifts in turnout patterns or legal challenges to specific lines could still alter the final count before November voting.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$10,489End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The 2025 mid-decade redistricting in Texas, enacted at the urging of President Trump and signed into law by Governor Abbott, forms the central driver of current trader positioning. The map shifted boundaries to favor Republicans in several previously Democratic-leaning districts, particularly in South Texas, reducing the party's baseline from 13 seats while creating three to five additional Republican-leaning opportunities. This leaves only a narrow band of competitive districts, mainly TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34, where outcomes hinge on Hispanic voter turnout, candidate strength, and any national midterm swing. March 2026 primaries showed elevated Democratic participation in targeted areas, and generic ballot polling indicates a modest opposition-party advantage, sustaining tight probabilities clustered around 10–12 seats. Late shifts in turnout patterns or legal challenges to specific lines could still alter the final count before November voting.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,489End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2025 mid-decade redistricting in Texas, enacted at the urging of President Trump and signed into law by Governor Abbott, forms the central driver of current trader positioning. The map shifted boundaries to favor Republicans in several previously Democratic-leaning districts, particularly in South Texas, reducing the party's baseline from 13 seats while creating three to five additional Republican-leaning opportunities. This leaves only a narrow band of competitive districts, mainly TX-15, TX-28, and TX-34, where outcomes hinge on Hispanic voter turnout, candidate strength, and any national midterm swing. March 2026 primaries showed elevated Democratic participation in targeted areas, and generic ballot polling indicates a modest opposition-party advantage, sustaining tight probabilities clustered around 10–12 seats. Late shifts in turnout patterns or legal challenges to specific lines could still alter the final count before November voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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