New York’s 26 House districts remain under the post-2020 map for the 2026 cycle after mid-decade redistricting efforts stalled. Democrats currently hold 19 seats and face seven Republican incumbents, with only a narrow set of districts rated competitive by forecasters. The closest contest centers on NY-17, where Republican Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley in a race rated a toss-up or slight Democratic lean based on recent polling showing margins under five points. A handful of Democratic-held seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley also carry modest vulnerability, though most carry stronger partisan leans. Trader pricing around 19–21 Democratic seats reflects uncertainty over whether national midterm dynamics and candidate-specific factors will produce one or two net flips in either direction before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20 33%
19 33%
21+ 24%
18 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<16
1%
16
2%
17
1%
18
7%
19
33%
20
33%
21+
24%
20 33%
19 33%
21+ 24%
18 7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
<16
$423 Vol.
1%
16
$354 Vol.
2%
17
$769 Vol.
1%
18
$923 Vol.
7%
19
$1,144 Vol.
33%
20
$1,148 Vol.
33%
21+
$873 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.New York’s 26 House districts remain under the post-2020 map for the 2026 cycle after mid-decade redistricting efforts stalled. Democrats currently hold 19 seats and face seven Republican incumbents, with only a narrow set of districts rated competitive by forecasters. The closest contest centers on NY-17, where Republican Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley in a race rated a toss-up or slight Democratic lean based on recent polling showing margins under five points. A handful of Democratic-held seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley also carry modest vulnerability, though most carry stronger partisan leans. Trader pricing around 19–21 Democratic seats reflects uncertainty over whether national midterm dynamics and candidate-specific factors will produce one or two net flips in either direction before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$5,634End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.New York’s 26 House districts remain under the post-2020 map for the 2026 cycle after mid-decade redistricting efforts stalled. Democrats currently hold 19 seats and face seven Republican incumbents, with only a narrow set of districts rated competitive by forecasters. The closest contest centers on NY-17, where Republican Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley in a race rated a toss-up or slight Democratic lean based on recent polling showing margins under five points. A handful of Democratic-held seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley also carry modest vulnerability, though most carry stronger partisan leans. Trader pricing around 19–21 Democratic seats reflects uncertainty over whether national midterm dynamics and candidate-specific factors will produce one or two net flips in either direction before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New York in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All New York US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,634End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...New York’s 26 House districts remain under the post-2020 map for the 2026 cycle after mid-decade redistricting efforts stalled. Democrats currently hold 19 seats and face seven Republican incumbents, with only a narrow set of districts rated competitive by forecasters. The closest contest centers on NY-17, where Republican Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley in a race rated a toss-up or slight Democratic lean based on recent polling showing margins under five points. A handful of Democratic-held seats on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley also carry modest vulnerability, though most carry stronger partisan leans. Trader pricing around 19–21 Democratic seats reflects uncertainty over whether national midterm dynamics and candidate-specific factors will produce one or two net flips in either direction before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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