Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 52% of the vote against Republican David Pan at 33%, with the remaining Democratic challengers trailing far behind. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10, and independent forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Correa’s substantial fundraising lead and established name recognition in Orange County further reinforce the position. Trader consensus at 95% for Democrats reflects these structural and recent electoral realities ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant shift would require an unexpected development such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Republican turnout that overcomes the district’s partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-46 House Election Winner
CA-46 House Election Winner
$24,224 Vol.
$24,224 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$24,224 Vol.
$24,224 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,687 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$19,536 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 52% of the vote against Republican David Pan at 33%, with the remaining Democratic challengers trailing far behind. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10, and independent forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Correa’s substantial fundraising lead and established name recognition in Orange County further reinforce the position. Trader consensus at 95% for Democrats reflects these structural and recent electoral realities ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant shift would require an unexpected development such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Republican turnout that overcomes the district’s partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$24,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 52% of the vote against Republican David Pan at 33%, with the remaining Democratic challengers trailing far behind. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10, and independent forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Correa’s substantial fundraising lead and established name recognition in Orange County further reinforce the position. Trader consensus at 95% for Democrats reflects these structural and recent electoral realities ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant shift would require an unexpected development such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Republican turnout that overcomes the district’s partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 52% of the vote against Republican David Pan at 33%, with the remaining Democratic challengers trailing far behind. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10, and independent forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Correa’s substantial fundraising lead and established name recognition in Orange County further reinforce the position. Trader consensus at 95% for Democrats reflects these structural and recent electoral realities ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant shift would require an unexpected development such as a major scandal involving the incumbent, a sharp national partisan swing, or unusually high Republican turnout that overcomes the district’s partisan baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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