California’s 26th congressional district carries a D+9 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee after she secured 41 percent, while Republican Samuel Gallucci advanced with 21 percent; the remaining Democratic vote split among multiple challengers. Incumbent Julia Brownley’s retirement opened the seat, yet the district’s underlying partisan composition and Irwin’s established name recognition in Ventura County have produced a wide consensus among forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for the Democratic outcome aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of late-breaking developments that would alter the balance before the November 3 general election. A national Republican surge, unforeseen candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomaly could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require movement well beyond historical patterns in the district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-26 House Election Winner
CA-26 House Election Winner
$32,154 Vol.
$32,154 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$32,154 Vol.
$32,154 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,426 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$15,728 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 26th congressional district carries a D+9 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee after she secured 41 percent, while Republican Samuel Gallucci advanced with 21 percent; the remaining Democratic vote split among multiple challengers. Incumbent Julia Brownley’s retirement opened the seat, yet the district’s underlying partisan composition and Irwin’s established name recognition in Ventura County have produced a wide consensus among forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for the Democratic outcome aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of late-breaking developments that would alter the balance before the November 3 general election. A national Republican surge, unforeseen candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomaly could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require movement well beyond historical patterns in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$32,154End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 26th congressional district carries a D+9 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee after she secured 41 percent, while Republican Samuel Gallucci advanced with 21 percent; the remaining Democratic vote split among multiple challengers. Incumbent Julia Brownley’s retirement opened the seat, yet the district’s underlying partisan composition and Irwin’s established name recognition in Ventura County have produced a wide consensus among forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for the Democratic outcome aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of late-breaking developments that would alter the balance before the November 3 general election. A national Republican surge, unforeseen candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomaly could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require movement well beyond historical patterns in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,154End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 26th congressional district carries a D+9 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee after she secured 41 percent, while Republican Samuel Gallucci advanced with 21 percent; the remaining Democratic vote split among multiple challengers. Incumbent Julia Brownley’s retirement opened the seat, yet the district’s underlying partisan composition and Irwin’s established name recognition in Ventura County have produced a wide consensus among forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for the Democratic outcome aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of late-breaking developments that would alter the balance before the November 3 general election. A national Republican surge, unforeseen candidate withdrawal, or turnout anomaly could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require movement well beyond historical patterns in the district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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