Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Rui Costa (PT) consistently leading intentions for the two Bahia Senate seats, with Jaques Wagner (PT) in second place ahead of challengers such as João Roma (PL), Angelo Coronel (Republicanos), and Professora Delliana (PSOL). This positioning drives the market's elevated probability for Wagner in second, reflecting the PT's organizational strength in the state, Wagner's incumbency and name recognition, and the structure of the October 4 election where voters select two candidates. A June federal police operation involving Wagner has correlated with some erosion in his support and higher rejection ratings, yet subsequent surveys indicate limited further decline. Lower probabilities for Roma, Coronel, and minor candidates align with their single-digit or low-teens polling shares and weaker statewide infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Jaques Wagner 75%
Rui Costa 8.9%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Professora Delliana <1%
$10,472 Vol.
$10,472 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
75%
Rui Costa
9%
Carlos Sodré
1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Angelo Coronel
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Jaques Wagner 75%
Rui Costa 8.9%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Professora Delliana <1%
$10,472 Vol.
$10,472 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
$4,579 Vol.
75%
Rui Costa
$2,410 Vol.
9%
Carlos Sodré
$272 Vol.
1%
Professora Delliana
$471 Vol.
<1%
Angelo Coronel
$317 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$516 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$267 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$387 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$586 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$667 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Rui Costa (PT) consistently leading intentions for the two Bahia Senate seats, with Jaques Wagner (PT) in second place ahead of challengers such as João Roma (PL), Angelo Coronel (Republicanos), and Professora Delliana (PSOL). This positioning drives the market's elevated probability for Wagner in second, reflecting the PT's organizational strength in the state, Wagner's incumbency and name recognition, and the structure of the October 4 election where voters select two candidates. A June federal police operation involving Wagner has correlated with some erosion in his support and higher rejection ratings, yet subsequent surveys indicate limited further decline. Lower probabilities for Roma, Coronel, and minor candidates align with their single-digit or low-teens polling shares and weaker statewide infrastructure.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$10,472End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Rui Costa (PT) consistently leading intentions for the two Bahia Senate seats, with Jaques Wagner (PT) in second place ahead of challengers such as João Roma (PL), Angelo Coronel (Republicanos), and Professora Delliana (PSOL). This positioning drives the market's elevated probability for Wagner in second, reflecting the PT's organizational strength in the state, Wagner's incumbency and name recognition, and the structure of the October 4 election where voters select two candidates. A June federal police operation involving Wagner has correlated with some erosion in his support and higher rejection ratings, yet subsequent surveys indicate limited further decline. Lower probabilities for Roma, Coronel, and minor candidates align with their single-digit or low-teens polling shares and weaker statewide infrastructure.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,472End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from July and August 2026 shows Rui Costa (PT) consistently leading intentions for the two Bahia Senate seats, with Jaques Wagner (PT) in second place ahead of challengers such as João Roma (PL), Angelo Coronel (Republicanos), and Professora Delliana (PSOL). This positioning drives the market's elevated probability for Wagner in second, reflecting the PT's organizational strength in the state, Wagner's incumbency and name recognition, and the structure of the October 4 election where voters select two candidates. A June federal police operation involving Wagner has correlated with some erosion in his support and higher rejection ratings, yet subsequent surveys indicate limited further decline. Lower probabilities for Roma, Coronel, and minor candidates align with their single-digit or low-teens polling shares and weaker statewide infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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