Ongoing record ocean heat content, with daily global sea surface temperatures reaching a new high of 21.1°C in late August 2026 per Copernicus data, combined with a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures well above 1.29°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Berkeley Earth and ERA5 analyses show July 2026 already at 1.56°C, with August on track for similar or higher values amid persistent marine heat and land-ocean coupling. Traders assign 99.5% implied probability to >1.29°C because current observational trajectories and ensemble forecasts place the monthly anomaly firmly in that range, with only minor data revisions or late-month cooling as plausible but low-probability challengers before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,162 Vol.
$14,162 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,162 Vol.
$14,162 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,093 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,778 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing record ocean heat content, with daily global sea surface temperatures reaching a new high of 21.1°C in late August 2026 per Copernicus data, combined with a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures well above 1.29°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Berkeley Earth and ERA5 analyses show July 2026 already at 1.56°C, with August on track for similar or higher values amid persistent marine heat and land-ocean coupling. Traders assign 99.5% implied probability to >1.29°C because current observational trajectories and ensemble forecasts place the monthly anomaly firmly in that range, with only minor data revisions or late-month cooling as plausible but low-probability challengers before final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,162End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing record ocean heat content, with daily global sea surface temperatures reaching a new high of 21.1°C in late August 2026 per Copernicus data, combined with a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures well above 1.29°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Berkeley Earth and ERA5 analyses show July 2026 already at 1.56°C, with August on track for similar or higher values amid persistent marine heat and land-ocean coupling. Traders assign 99.5% implied probability to >1.29°C because current observational trajectories and ensemble forecasts place the monthly anomaly firmly in that range, with only minor data revisions or late-month cooling as plausible but low-probability challengers before final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,162End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing record ocean heat content, with daily global sea surface temperatures reaching a new high of 21.1°C in late August 2026 per Copernicus data, combined with a rapidly strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific and the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures well above 1.29°C relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Berkeley Earth and ERA5 analyses show July 2026 already at 1.56°C, with August on track for similar or higher values amid persistent marine heat and land-ocean coupling. Traders assign 99.5% implied probability to >1.29°C because current observational trajectories and ensemble forecasts place the monthly anomaly firmly in that range, with only minor data revisions or late-month cooling as plausible but low-probability challengers before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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