Alabama's open 2026 gubernatorial race pits Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville against Democrat Doug Jones in a rematch of their 2020 Senate contest, with the November 3 general election now under 75 days away. Both candidates cleared their primaries by wide margins earlier this year, leaving an open seat after term-limited Governor Kay Ivey. Recent polling averages show Tuberville ahead by roughly 10 points, consistent with Alabama's strong Republican lean and the 2024 presidential margin, yet the race remains structurally competitive enough that traders assign comparable weight to narrower versus wider Republican victory ranges. Limited new statewide surveys since mid-July and the absence of major campaign events or shifts in voter turnout models have kept implied probabilities clustered around typical midterm margins for the state. A late surge in Jones fundraising, unexpected turnout in urban or Black voter precincts, or Tuberville-specific developments could widen or compress the final spread before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican 30%+ 20%
Republican 10-15% 18%
Republican 15-20% 17%
Republican 20-25% 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 30%+
20%
Republican 25-30%
10%
Republican 20-25%
12%
Republican 15-20%
17%
Republican 10-15%
18%
Republican 5-10%
11%
Republican 0-5%
8%
Democrat Wins
3%
Republican 30%+ 20%
Republican 10-15% 18%
Republican 15-20% 17%
Republican 20-25% 12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican 30%+
$258 Vol.
20%
Republican 25-30%
$170 Vol.
10%
Republican 20-25%
$96 Vol.
12%
Republican 15-20%
$157 Vol.
17%
Republican 10-15%
$135 Vol.
18%
Republican 5-10%
$96 Vol.
11%
Republican 0-5%
$97 Vol.
8%
Democrat Wins
$510 Vol.
3%
The 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alabama's open 2026 gubernatorial race pits Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville against Democrat Doug Jones in a rematch of their 2020 Senate contest, with the November 3 general election now under 75 days away. Both candidates cleared their primaries by wide margins earlier this year, leaving an open seat after term-limited Governor Kay Ivey. Recent polling averages show Tuberville ahead by roughly 10 points, consistent with Alabama's strong Republican lean and the 2024 presidential margin, yet the race remains structurally competitive enough that traders assign comparable weight to narrower versus wider Republican victory ranges. Limited new statewide surveys since mid-July and the absence of major campaign events or shifts in voter turnout models have kept implied probabilities clustered around typical midterm margins for the state. A late surge in Jones fundraising, unexpected turnout in urban or Black voter precincts, or Tuberville-specific developments could widen or compress the final spread before Election Day.
The 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$1,518End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alabama's open 2026 gubernatorial race pits Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville against Democrat Doug Jones in a rematch of their 2020 Senate contest, with the November 3 general election now under 75 days away. Both candidates cleared their primaries by wide margins earlier this year, leaving an open seat after term-limited Governor Kay Ivey. Recent polling averages show Tuberville ahead by roughly 10 points, consistent with Alabama's strong Republican lean and the 2024 presidential margin, yet the race remains structurally competitive enough that traders assign comparable weight to narrower versus wider Republican victory ranges. Limited new statewide surveys since mid-July and the absence of major campaign events or shifts in voter turnout models have kept implied probabilities clustered around typical midterm margins for the state. A late surge in Jones fundraising, unexpected turnout in urban or Black voter precincts, or Tuberville-specific developments could widen or compress the final spread before Election Day.
The 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,518End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alabama's open 2026 gubernatorial race pits Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville against Democrat Doug Jones in a rematch of their 2020 Senate contest, with the November 3 general election now under 75 days away. Both candidates cleared their primaries by wide margins earlier this year, leaving an open seat after term-limited Governor Kay Ivey. Recent polling averages show Tuberville ahead by roughly 10 points, consistent with Alabama's strong Republican lean and the 2024 presidential margin, yet the race remains structurally competitive enough that traders assign comparable weight to narrower versus wider Republican victory ranges. Limited new statewide surveys since mid-July and the absence of major campaign events or shifts in voter turnout models have kept implied probabilities clustered around typical midterm margins for the state. A late surge in Jones fundraising, unexpected turnout in urban or Black voter precincts, or Tuberville-specific developments could widen or compress the final spread before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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