Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” holds a dominant 98% market-implied probability of topping Spotify’s US chart for the week ending August 28 because the track has sustained record-level momentum for months. It recently tied for the longest non-holiday Hot 100 reign at 19 weeks while sitting at No. 1 on Streaming Songs for a similar span, fueled by steady 24-plus million weekly U.S. streams, continued radio growth, and multi-format crossover success from its October 2025 release. The song’s staying power as the 2026 Song of the Summer, bolstered by its parent album Dandelion, has created a wide gap versus newer or mid-tier contenders. An upset would require an unforeseen late-week surge from a major new release or viral track that displaces it in final streaming tallies, though historical patterns and current data make that scenario improbable.