No astronomical surveys have identified any near-Earth object large enough to deliver a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied odds against such an event. Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ground-based telescopes using radar, infrared surveys, and wide-field imaging has cataloged the vast majority of hazardous asteroids, leaving minimal room for an undetected strike this year. While an unforeseen discovery of a small, fast-approaching body could theoretically shift probabilities, current orbital data and historical impact rates make this scenario negligible absent major gaps in coverage or sudden trajectory changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% chance
$116,621 Vol.
$116,621 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$116,621 Vol.
$116,621 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No astronomical surveys have identified any near-Earth object large enough to deliver a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied odds against such an event. Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ground-based telescopes using radar, infrared surveys, and wide-field imaging has cataloged the vast majority of hazardous asteroids, leaving minimal room for an undetected strike this year. While an unforeseen discovery of a small, fast-approaching body could theoretically shift probabilities, current orbital data and historical impact rates make this scenario negligible absent major gaps in coverage or sudden trajectory changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,621End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No astronomical surveys have identified any near-Earth object large enough to deliver a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied odds against such an event. Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ground-based telescopes using radar, infrared surveys, and wide-field imaging has cataloged the vast majority of hazardous asteroids, leaving minimal room for an undetected strike this year. While an unforeseen discovery of a small, fast-approaching body could theoretically shift probabilities, current orbital data and historical impact rates make this scenario negligible absent major gaps in coverage or sudden trajectory changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,621End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No astronomical surveys have identified any near-Earth object large enough to deliver a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the 98.3% market-implied odds against such an event. Continuous monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ground-based telescopes using radar, infrared surveys, and wide-field imaging has cataloged the vast majority of hazardous asteroids, leaving minimal room for an undetected strike this year. While an unforeseen discovery of a small, fast-approaching body could theoretically shift probabilities, current orbital data and historical impact rates make this scenario negligible absent major gaps in coverage or sudden trajectory changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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