Iran's political transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 airstrikes elevated his son Mojtaba Khamenei to the position in early March. Mojtaba sustained injuries in the same attack and has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances. Reports from July 2026, including claims citing Israeli sources, indicate he is not currently in Iran, amid speculation about medical treatment abroad or heightened security concerns tied to ongoing regional tensions and domestic pressures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' role in his selection and the regime's shift toward security-focused governance have shaped succession dynamics, while uncertainty over his physical condition and location continues to influence assessments of his ability to remain in-country. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could further affect visibility and mobility considerations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$107,404 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
4%
December 31
10%
$107,404 Vol.
August 31
$65,341 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$90 Vol.
4%
December 31
$71 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 airstrikes elevated his son Mojtaba Khamenei to the position in early March. Mojtaba sustained injuries in the same attack and has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances. Reports from July 2026, including claims citing Israeli sources, indicate he is not currently in Iran, amid speculation about medical treatment abroad or heightened security concerns tied to ongoing regional tensions and domestic pressures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' role in his selection and the regime's shift toward security-focused governance have shaped succession dynamics, while uncertainty over his physical condition and location continues to influence assessments of his ability to remain in-country. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could further affect visibility and mobility considerations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$107,404End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 airstrikes elevated his son Mojtaba Khamenei to the position in early March. Mojtaba sustained injuries in the same attack and has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances. Reports from July 2026, including claims citing Israeli sources, indicate he is not currently in Iran, amid speculation about medical treatment abroad or heightened security concerns tied to ongoing regional tensions and domestic pressures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' role in his selection and the regime's shift toward security-focused governance have shaped succession dynamics, while uncertainty over his physical condition and location continues to influence assessments of his ability to remain in-country. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could further affect visibility and mobility considerations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$107,404End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's political transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in late February 2026 airstrikes elevated his son Mojtaba Khamenei to the position in early March. Mojtaba sustained injuries in the same attack and has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances. Reports from July 2026, including claims citing Israeli sources, indicate he is not currently in Iran, amid speculation about medical treatment abroad or heightened security concerns tied to ongoing regional tensions and domestic pressures. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' role in his selection and the regime's shift toward security-focused governance have shaped succession dynamics, while uncertainty over his physical condition and location continues to influence assessments of his ability to remain in-country. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could further affect visibility and mobility considerations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions